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Do asymptomatics/presymptomatics transmit #COVID19 disease? Let’s analyse the preprint systematic review including 19 studies focusing on TRULY asymptomatic/presymptomatic. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.01.20135194v2 1/n
@mugecevik @jhaskinscabrera @MLevitt_NP2013 @BogochIsaac @SwissScience_TF
@mugecevik @jhaskinscabrera @MLevitt_NP2013 @BogochIsaac @SwissScience_TF
My own re-analysis of data shows a pooled secondary attack rate of 0% (0.00-0.2%) for #asymptomatic and 6.5% (2.8-11.3%) for #presymptomatics. 2/n
While #metaanalysis of asymptomatic is based on high quality studies as defined by authors, it’s not the case for presymtpomatic. Restricting #analysis to good quality studies, secondary attack rate of presymptomatic reduces by half- 3.5% (vs. 14% in poor studies). 3/n
This might suggest that poor quality studies might be overestimating the impact of presymptomatic #transmission, no? To highlight some studies are based on high risk settings, which might also overestimate the overall attack rate. 4/n
A new large study from #Wuhan showed also a 0% attack rate of asymptomatic patients. Should we revise the role of asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals considering some restrictive measures target this #population? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w?s=09 5/n
Last, the meta-analysis is based on the metaprop command in STATA using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation. https://archpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2049-3258-72-39
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