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hospitals inundated with patients who demonstrably, through clinical features we all recognise have Covid-19, beds occupied by them escalating fast, more on oxygen, ICU expanding capacity again and *still* people bloody blaming the PCR test.
Just, NO! PCR is *not* the problem
Just, NO! PCR is *not* the problem
the number of PCR tests in community has not increased anywhere near as rapidly as the surges in clinical cases. And PCR false positive rate is actually low and sensitivity good in people with symptoms who we suspect are infected. Population screening of asymptomatic is different
meanwhile, false or first negatives are more of an issue in people with a high likelihood of infection for whom it soon becomes apparent that they do have covid clinical syndrome and then test positive
also "deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test" does NOT influence what we actually write on death certificates which by law we have to complete to the best of our knowledge and belief and which are scrutinised by a 2nd doctor.
En masse Falsification of certificates? no
En masse Falsification of certificates? no
the ONS data (rather than GOV own definition for counting) are not based on some arbitrary post test time period but on what we put on the certificate based on our clinical knowledge of that patient in their final illness. If we think Covid contributed to death it goes on
here is a thread with replies from radiologists, chest physicians and intensive care docs about the number of x rays they are seeing with changes we rarely saw before Covid. These are NOT just cos of "false positive" PCR tests https://twitter.com/mancunianmedic/status/1343917651672920065
here are some resources on how death certification/Covid death certification work https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/covid-consultant-confronts-claims-conspiracy-19393667
here is a nice explainer from @bmj_latest about properties of Covid-19 PCR tests (remember - NOT used in mass population screening of asymptomatic people but those who have symptoms/high clinical suspicion). Sensitivity high. False positives low https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808
i have looked after all-covid-19 ward at some personal risk for weeks on end& will be taking on a 2nd "surge" ward today. I do it gladly, willingly would volunteer do it all again. upsetting work.
But far less distressed by this difficult work than by Yeadon, Young et al
But far less distressed by this difficult work than by Yeadon, Young et al
one final thing. People asking my colleagues and i if we are going to get vaccinated if we are working in shopfloor patient facing roles with Covid-19 patients (we are at between 3 and 6 times greater risk of infection than other groups).
Mostly, "not yet/not for weeks"
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Mostly, "not yet/not for weeks"
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