I’ve changed my mind re Labour voting for the deal. My previous view had been that Labour should vote for the deal as a tactical measure to convince its Brexit supporting base that it had moved on.

I believe I described this as a ‘no-brainer’. I still think this is a good argument but it is based on a crucial assumption - that the Brexit question (by which I mean the shape of the UK’s relationship with the EU in the medium term) would have been largely settled.

Now the deal has been agreed I know longer believe this to be the case (perhaps this was always obvious). The deal is hasty and thin. It has numerous gaps that will need to be addressed and the absence of financial services equiv and data sharing point to painful battles ahead.

In addition, the entirely counterproductive lack of an implementation period will cause irritation and disruption to many people (NB the post office not sending packages to Europe - a small but revealing example).

It was always going to be the case that the deal would not be supported by the SNP. But it will also not be supported by the DUP as well. A noteworthy development. In other words, the deal is clearly not supported by a United Kingdom.

The deal has also been greeted with antipathy by large sections of the fishing community. Perhaps that doesn’t matter so much for the economy but it does matter in the context of this deal. A material transformation of the prospects of the UK fishing industry was a key promise.

The deal is well supported by Brexit sovereignists. But for how long? Divergence is the key question. The deal itself and practical considerations (for example the almost complete absence of thought re what divergence might actually look like), will act against meaningful change.

Attacking the EU has been a lucrative source of political capital for the govt and many of its supporters. I consider it naive to think this will no longer be the case. Also, the ERG (and the govt) have a demonstrated track record of turning against deals they once supported.

In summary, while I believe it is possible to make a success of Brexit I consider it highly unlikely in the medium term. The deal itself is probably best seen as a sighting shot that will (as a practical and political matter) need to be changed.

Labour is in danger of fighting the last battle. The battle ahead will be about the next iteration of the relationship shape, played out in the context of an existential debate about the United Kingdom. In this debate, the majority of Labour supporters will support closer ties.

It is, however, not possible (or advisable) to ignore the views of traditional Labour voters who supported Brexit. As a result, I recommend that Labour abstains to better position itself for the future.

/ends

PS Arguing that not supporting the deal is voting for no deal is nonsense.

PPS Irrespective of the voting, if the deal goes well there will be zero appetite to change it. But if the deal goes badly there will be appetite for change (and Labour can still blame the government for messing it up).