1) For at least the past two days, the centre of Montreal has been virtually exploding with #COVID19 cases to an extent not witnessed since the first wave. In this thread, I will try to explain what might be going on in the city.

2) First, Montreal posted a record 968 #COVID19 cases Tuesday. The city’s seven-day average inched up to 43.03 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s 18 cases higher than the 25-case threshold set by Harvard University’s public health experts to recommend total stay-at-home orders.

3) For the past three days, Montreal has recorded daily #COVID19 cases in the 900-range, suggesting the second wave has not yet peaked in the metropolis. Outside of the city, the #pandemic may have plateaued in some regions of the province.

4) At the neighborhood level, the central health district comprising Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc Extension recorded 152 cases in a single day. From Dec. 24 to Dec. 23, the district posted 398 cases. Something serious is happening in this densely populated part of Montreal.

5) The district is teeming with apartments with large families. Many low-income workers in the district often have no choice during the #pandemic but to take public transit to their jobs. There are also many public schools and hospitals in Côte-des-Neiges.

6) Ultimately, the rise in cases will turn into more hospitalizations in a week or two. Across Quebec, the Health Ministry reported 1,131 #COVID19 hospitalizations, of which 148 were ICU stays (down slightly by two). See the chart below.

7) It’s against this backdrop of rising hospitalizations, cancelled surgeries and #COVID19 outbreaks in hospitals that exhausted nurses in Montreal’s emergency rooms are dealing with overcrowding. At the Jewish General Hospital, 70 patients were on gurneys for at least 48 hours.

8) And sadly, some hospitalizations will end in death. The province declared 64 more #COVID19 fatalities Tuesday to a death toll of 8,124. The #pandemic claimed 14 more lives in Montreal, raising its death toll to 3,840. Please take a moment to review the chart below.

9) Health Minister Christian Dubé urged Quebecers Tuesday to follow the current public-health guidelines to protect the population from hitting a wall in January. But it’s clear the wall has already been hit. End of thread. Please stay safe and limit your social contacts.