So... with Devonta Smith racing to the front of the class and people mocking "BmI tWitTeR"....

I suspect its time to dive in...

We are going to look at hit rates for different BMI ranges, I just want to preface that I have not filtered for bulletproof grades etc. This is EVERYONE that is in the database that has a combine BMI

We are going to look at the hit rate for top 24 and top 12 szns

Let us begin:

So this first part is going to include rounds 1-7 of the NFL draft. Not just the first three rounds like I normally do.

This is for ALL BMI's so its the full sample

Top 12 szns: 54/361 =14.96%
Top 24 szns: 81/361 = 22.44%

I will mark them with these:

Below Average:
Above Average:

BMI 29 and up:

Top 12 szns: 1/8 =12.50%
Top 24 szns: 1/8 =12.50%

BMI 28.0 to 28.9:

Top 12 szns: 14/54 =25.93%
Top 24 szns: 19/54 =35.19%

BMI 27.0 to 27.9:

Top 12 szns: 17/99 =17.17%
Top 24 szns: 20/99=20.20%

BMI 26.0 to 26.9:

Top 12 szns: 13/84 =15.48%
Top 24 szns: 22/84 =26.19%

BMI 25.0 to 25.9:

Top 12 szns: 1/43 = 2.33%
Top 24 szns: 4/43 = 9.30%

BMI 24.9 and under:

Top 12 szns: 2/22 = 9.09%
Top 24 szns: 4/22 = 18.18%

The takeaway so far is that things are scary in that under 26 range. But is that just because the NFL is drafting all of the thicc WR's early?

Lets try to control for draft capital by only looking at WR's drafted in rounds 1-3 next.

This is for ALL BMI's for WR's drafted rounds 1-3, the full sample:

Top 12 szns: 45/187 = 24.06%
Top 24 szns: 66/187 = 35.29%

Again, I will mark them with or compared to the full sample of WR's drafted rounds 1-3.

BMI 29 and up:

Top 12 szns: 1/2 = 50%
Top 24 szns: 1/2 = 50%

This is obviously a nothing sample as its only two but I didnt realize it when I did the prior one, so

BMI 28.0 to 28.9:

Top 12 szns: 13/31 = 41.94%
Top 24 szns: 16/31 = 51.61%

BMI 27.0 to 27.9:

Top 12 szns: 14/59 = 23.73%
Top 24 szns: 17/59 = 28.81%

BMI 26.0 to 26.9:

Top 12 szns: 10/51 = 19.61%
Top 24 szns: 19/51 = 37.25%

BMI 25.0 to 25.9:

Top 12 szns: 0/12 = 0%
Top 24 szns: 2/12 = 16.67%

BMI 24.9 and under:

Top 12 szns: 1/13 = 7.69%
Top 24 szns: 3/13 = 23.08%

At least to me, it looks like you want those thicc WR's in that 28.0+ range, and then you want the guys in the 26-28 range, and then you kind of dont want the guys under 26.

This isnt to say that skinny WR's CANT hit, its certainly possible, it's just not probable

I know people are going to say,

"bUt DeVoNtA SmItH iS DiFfErEnt"... and maybe he is, but why on earth would you bet on it?

If you are going to spend premium rookie draft capital, spend it on a guy with the odds in his favor, not an outlier.