Hello. Today is 30 December 2020 & let's look at the year in review of asset performance. Here is a chart of key equity indices in 2020 in USD. Looking at this, it's difficult to see that we had one of the most devastating pandemics & economic contractions globally in decades.
Best is tech related indices, such as Kosdaq (Korean tech) & Nasdaq (American tech), Shenzhen (Chinese tech), Kospi & obviously Taiwan & the Nikkei.

Meaning, the Americans + North Asians, mostly Korean, Taiwanese, Japanese & Chinese tech.

Covid-19 = Tech windfall.
Beyond sector driven indices (tech & the mother of all tech is American, Chinese, Korean & Taiwanese as they are all part of the supply chain), of course we have to look at who else did well beyond sectoral advantages & of course they would be VIETNAM, TAIWAN & CHINA 🇻🇳🇹🇼🇨🇳

Why?
Btw, while economics & markets may seem divorced, they are not. I'll explain that later on why that is the case but let's talk about VN, TW & CH.

These are the only POSITIVE growing economies in Asia (& major econs) in 2020 & their growth rates are in that order, as in VN best.
This is GDP growth rates in Asia in 2020 (and I used only 1st 3 quarters even though VN had its Q4 as it's the only one so far) & best are VN, TW, CH, followed by SK.

Why VN so good? Well, it didn't believe in the WHO & so shut down its borders even in Jan (TW same). And also...
Beyond Vietnam and Taiwan taking its on precaution vs waiting for the WHO to declare global pandemic on 12 March 2020 (Korea did the same), which saved these economies from lock-downs & relatively limited disruption to domestic mobility at the expense of tourism, which was wise.
But more importantly, Vietnam, as a frontier market, did something different than other Asian economies such as Indonesia, India & the Philippines, in that it had created a very diversified economy that didn't overly depend on a few sectors & also portfolio flows & have manu +FDI
While the global storm raged outside &countries blindly listened to the WHO & kept borders opened & let the pandemic rage & ravaged their economies & some even worse having to much dependence on few sectors, Vietnam did better & let's be honest best in Asia despite being frontier
Taiwan, of course, is a well known story. It's just Vietnam in a next level w/ the virus contained as it never took chances & took actions early on & was vigilant, not to mention having sectors crushing it during Covid-19 such as semiconductor & also policies of reshoring.
Finally China, which you know well. After having the infection in Wuhan going out of control and taking draconian measures in that province & beyond, it took its own steps w/ Covid & shut down the borders (against WHO recommendations) & so was able to normalize slowly after Q1.
Let's not forget, we started 2020 EUPHORIC & markets continued to be up until Feb despite news of a virus forcing China to do lockdown (after many travelers already fled abroad for LNY) as Western leaders (politicians + journalists) touting WHO recos vs following VN & TW.
Anyway, we know now what we know & hindsight is 2020 & this is the asset performance we get globally & to the left is the GDP.

I talked about the positive GDP story (still slowing) & we know the negative story too as countries got caught off guard cyclically & structurally.
Anyway, we know now what we know & hindsight is 2020 & this is the asset performance we get globally & to the left is the GDP.I talked about the positive GDP story (still slowing) & we know the negative story too as countries got caught off guard cyclically & structurally.
Anyway, we know now what we know & hindsight is 2020 & this is the asset performance we get globally & to the left is the GDP.I talked about the positive GDP story (still slowing) & we know the negative story too as countries got caught off guard cyclically & structurally.
In Asia, the worst performing economy is the Philippines, followed by India and then Hong Kong, where @Trinhnomics live. And HK is painful because we had a contraction in 2019 already.

Let's not forget, even in VN, TW, CH, the positive growth figures mask the unevenness/pain.
Why did the Philippines & India do so poorly in juxtaposition to Vietnam? Well, it waited until the WHO declared pandemic mid March, which btw would mean that Covid-19 was already RAGING globally, to take actions so it went from hero to zero mobility through lockdowns.

And worse
Both the Philippines & India didn't just do its own intel (can we blame them as VN & TW & SK are the outliers not the norm of Covid-19 management) on Covid & relied on the WHO & that was a disaster. But they weren't blameless. These economies were ill prepared to begin w/ due to
You can follow @Trinhnomics.
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