1) At the current rate Quebec is vaccinating against #COVID19, it could take up to 8,522 days to achieve collective immunity against the #coronavirus in the province. In this thread, I will explain why the vaccine rollout will be a lot more complicated than some may have hoped.

2) I am basing the above calculations on comments that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious-diseases expert in the U.S., made to the New York Times on Dec. 24, as well as an interview I conducted with Dr. Philippe De Wals, a member of the Comité sur l’immunisation du Québec.

3) Dr. Fauci had this to say: “I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 per cent (of the U.S. population vaccinated). But I'm not going to say 90%." In another interview, Fauci suggested 80% to achieve herd immunity. Let’s go with that figure and apply it to Quebec.

4) Quebec’s population stands at 8.575 million. Vaccinating 80 per cent of the population would mean giving shots to 6.86 million Quebecers. Since the two main #COVID19 vaccines require two shots, that would mean administering more than 13.7 million doses over the coming months.

5) To date, Quebec has vaccinated 22,500 people since Dec. 15, averaging 1,607 a day. At that rate, it would take another 8,522 days, or 23 years, to reach the 80% rate here that Dr. Fauci hopes for the U.S. What did Dr. De Wals have to say about Canada's vaccination plans?

6) “The idea that the majority of Canadians will be vaccinated by the end of next year is a hope, but nobody is sure of that,” De Wals told me last month. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/question-abound-over-how-montreals-covid-vaccine-campaign-will-unfold

8) Dr. Lena Wen, a visiting professor to the Milken Institute School of Public Health, had this to say about the U.S. effort: “If the goal is to reach 80% of Americans vaccinated with a 2-dose #COVID19 vaccine, it will take 10 years at our current pace.” https://twitter.com/DrLeanaWen/status/1343920976854196225

9) Quebec’s health minister, Christian Dubé, said Tuesday that the province has the capability to administer all the necessary doses quickly. The problem, he explained, is the province is waiting for more shipments from the vaccine manufacturers, Pfizer and Moderna.

10) Quebec this year ordered two million doses of the influenza vaccine. Theoretically at least, the #COVID19 campaign would require administering more than six times the number of flu doses, while waiting for the vaccine manufacturers to deliver them to the province.

11) But there is some hope. Ottawa has signed agreements with seven manufacturers, so the vaccine supply is expected to ramp up significantly in the coming months. There are also other promising vaccine candidates that may be approved in 2021.

12) There is also talk in Britain of giving only a single jab of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine since it may still prove effective against the #coronavirus. Dubé said Quebec is in discussions with Pfizer to do just that.

13) At present, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are not approved for use in children, but clinical trials have already begun. Children may be inoculated in the later stages of the campaign. That should free up shots for higher-priority individuals for much of 2021.

14) All this points to the absolute necessity to follow current public-health #COVID19 guidelines, especially given that the new, more transmissible variant that has just been detected in Quebec, along with surging cases and hospitalizations. End of thread. Stay safe.

Addendum: A second thread will come later tonight on Quebec’s #COVID19 situation after I update this story in @themtlgazette. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/quebec-to-ottawa-intensify-covid-19-screening-of-returning-travellers