Closing the books on 2020 and recording some thoughts for 2021. Themes, picks, SPAC / IPO watchlists to follow. A thread

Fundamentally, expect continued mo for bios in 2021 - disruptive tech premium, steady M&A, scientific Ws>Ls. Pullback will be healthy but violent. Retail self-reinforcement; see ARKK/G. Illiquidity will be ARK's challenge in a drawdown - will drag the space down further & harder

Few top picks follow. Primarily core positions; will trade in smaller/more binary names. No unifying theme here, but generally like to focus on secular themes (e.g. iPSC cell therapy, spatial biology, KRAS unlocking) and names in which that narrative is not yet fully appreciated

$FATE - already expensive and will only get pricier. hnCD16 data at ASH derisks the entire pipeline; huge optionality in r/r settings and earlier line combos. iPSCs are ultimate CTx modality. Despite the price tag, wouldn’t be surprised to see this one taken off the board in 2021

$ALLO - too many data point suggesting that D0-28 AUC is a bigger driver of DOR than persistence (will do a thread if interest). Moderately shorted name (~8% float) already and likely to build into mid-year CD19 update; big squeeze potential. And don’t look now, but it’s 'cheap'

$NSTG - shrewd SMI pivot positions Co to leverage GeoMx synergies while penetrating $10B+ spatial genomics TAM. Upside to GeoMx #'s on NGS rollout, and nCounter recovery in parallel should help hit #'s while the narrative shifts. 13 turns cheaper than TXG on EV/Sales basis

$GBT - biotech’s reopening stock; vox will be fine but more interested in long-term set up with GBT-021601 and inclaclumab moving expeditiously. Gets no pipeline credit currently; could see stock inflect as narrative evolves into a SCD franchise story on GBT-021601 POC data YE21

$RVMD - RAS(ON) portfolio and pathway ownership still under appreciated; 5 variants in lead op with 2 DCs by 1H21. KRAS space will continue to evolve with combo data (incl. SHP2), AMGN approval, 1L studies; RVMD narrative and valuation will follow. 4-5x cheaper than MRTX

$ABEO - non-core, but my fave bioturd for @pawcio2009 - sub-$100M EV; RDEB is $300-500M oppty with pivotal topline late 2021 (minimal clinical risk). Upside optionality from MPSIIIA/B at WORLD (doubt it though) and/or strategic transactions (more likely). Just need a CEO...

Other trades I’m interested in / kicking around - $BDTX, $ACET, $MORF, $CABA, $DRNA, $CBIO. Would love to hear thoughts

Potential hot IPOs I’m watching / looking for:
C&GTx - Century, Sana, Orca Bio, Verve
Targeted Onc - Erasca, Tango
MolDx - Somalogic, Sema4, Freenome, Inscripta
SynBio - Zymergen, Gingko

And let’s not forget SPACs. ~35 biotech SPACs outstanding with nearly $7B in dry powder. When do $BBIO or Roivant start pursuing SPACs as a vehicle for maximizing subsidiary valuations? What about one of the big AI platforms (insitro, Recursion)?

Finally, sincere thank you to all from whom I’ve learned so much over the years. Long-time reader, first time contributor; excited to fully dive in to the biotwit community @gcbioinv @Biohazard3737 @buysidebio @Varro_Analytics @sentivcapital @MSollender @biotechinvstr & many more