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It is clear that covid cases and hospital admissions are increasing dramatically. Hospital admissions rising from covid cause multiple challenges across the nhs, not just from covid.
If we assume - wrongly - young people dont get very ill, and even if only 1% of people needed hospitalisation, and even if all of them were over 45, that would still be in Herts 9,170 hospital beds needed for a system which has 1,200
so we would need 7.6 times more beds than we have, even if we could staff them, which we cant . nightingale hospitals are not the answer either, we cant staff them because so many staff are sick or self isolating
but we know this calculus is wrong, because we know that people of all ages have vulnerability to covid and get ill from it. We
You cant fully predict who gets hospitalised. Plenty of young people have been, and many others have ongoing serious symptoms months after. The idea covid only hospitalises the vulnerable is simply not true https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30343-6/fulltext https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52124554
while thankfully most people hospitalised now survive. The journey can be gruelling and take months. An inconvenieng truth you wont hear from those who say “its only the vulnerable” https://www.blf.org.uk/support-for-you/coronavirus/how-will-i-recover-if-ive-had-coronavirus https://www.health.org.uk/videos/surviving-covid-covid-19-and-the-long-road-to-recovery
not only the elderly are vulnerable. A range of factors can mean younger folk are vulnerable. Especially bame people. Over 20% of those under 40 have conditions that can worsen covid. The “only the vulnerable” is untrue and doesnt recognise BAME risks https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-and-covid-19-younger-adults-are-at-risk-too
while thankfully many more survive, oxygen demand on hospitals from so many patients means oxygen supplies in hospitals run at near caoacity. If overtopped, hospitals may be unable to admit people. This alone should concern us https://twitter.com/shaunlintern/status/1343588469206089728?s=21
the time people with covid are in hospital is now longer on average because though many more survive they are often very ill and need oxygen. Fewer folk in ITU thankfully but many more very ill on wards.
beds taken up by covid patients cant be occupied by anyone else, and beds next to covid positive people have to be closed for infection control purposes if dedicated covid wards and full. This delay impacts on non covid patients
the more covid beds occupied, the harder hospitals have to worrk to stop patients acquiring it in hospital. And the more other vulnerable patients like cancer patients are at risk of hospital acquired infection. And sometimes the fewer non covid patients get access to treatment
the more people recivering from covid the more rehabilitation beds we need and nurses and doctors and healthcare assistants to staff them
the more covid circulating, the more nhs staff get ill or have to self isolate (one reason we havent yet opened nightingale hospitals is because that would just create a huge staffing headache when we already have one)
the more staff who are ill or self-isolating, the more pressure is put on getting staff vaccinated, or find people to do vaccinations if they are being pulled into acute care
the more the pressure, the more something has to give and the more outpatient and elective care will be put under pressure or staff make inevitable mistakes. It’s a testament to their humanity and energy things have gone well.
And then there is long covid, which causes a further nhs burden. the more covid, the more long covid in younger people, the longer and greater the harm and burden in the nhs.
https://www.longcovid.org/stories https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53169736
https://www.longcovid.org/stories https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53169736
So...Playing our part in suppressing the virus does make a difference. It stops the quadruple whammy of 1) admissions and longer stays, 2) staff sickness, 3) vaccine delay and 4) long covid care need.
Letting the virus “rip through” is junk science, a deadly strategy and it is a false idea that only the “vulnerable” will be at risk of death or harm. We’re nowhere near the virus “just ripping through” - less than 15% of population infected - and the strains are self evident.
Others have written about the fact that in any case “it only affects the vulnerable” doesnt add up either in terms of its impact on the system, the fact vulnerable people still have a right to life or the morality of caring for others
If we want to exit covid, the choice is simple. The less the virus circulates the more the system copes. The quicker and more safely non covid patients will be seen and the faster the vaccune reaches everyone. What each of us does and says impact for better or worse on others.
So we have a choice. When outside your household treat everyone as if they may be infected and behave as if you may be too. Hands, face, space and self isolate when symptomatic or asked to do so. And the quicker we re-open
if we keep on believing junk science - that covid only affects vulnerable elderly and what we do as individuals doesn’t matter (let alone this implictly is a decision that the vulnerable don’t matter), then watch the situation get worse, not better.
Deciding not to play our part rebounds on us -the more the virus circulates, the longer we have restrictions we dont want. Playing our part helps others directly and indirectly, and helps us too. #PlayYourPart
A long thread, apologies, but hopefully this goes some way to answering some of the questions people have asked today
It should be clear from this that a discourse of “it only affects the vulnerable” is bad science, puts BAME citizens at risk, puts at risk the 18% of our population who are disabled, and the 9m more with chronic health conditions. Who actually benefits from such a strategy?
