One question I keep getting about the Georgia early voting is about age: isn't the electorate older, and how much does it hurt the Democrats?
So far the answer is 'not really' and 'not at all.'
The first question is easy enough. As of today, youth turnout is basically keeping pace with the general, controlling for the slightly reduced opportunities to vote. This augurs for an unusually young electorate https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1343927079587500033?s=20
The second question is more interesting: are the Democrats hurt by lower youth turnout? So far the answer is no, and there are two reasons.
One reason: there's not a *huge* gen. gap. Maybe young voters are D+20 while >65 are R+15. You need a big gap for modest changes to matter.
The second reason is maybe more interesting: the young voters who have voted are just a lot more Democratic than the young voters who turned out at this stage of the general election
By party primary vote history, the 18-29 year olds who have voted so far are D 38, R 12. They were D 33, R 14 in the general at this stage.
Race is a factor. The young voters who have turned out are 46% white, 34% black; they were 51% white, 30% black at this stage of the general election
But even among young white voters, you get a similar pattern. They're D 27, R 23 so far; they were D 22, R 24 at this stage of the general
This basic story shows up in our survey data as well: among Times/Siena respondents from Sept/Oct, we have Biden up 70 to 19 among young voters who have voted already in the runoffs, v. 65 to 26 among young voters who voted by this stage of the election
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