We need to talk frankly about this increase in murder rates in 2020—and what to do about it.

One knee-jerk reaction is that the murder rate has increased as a result of criminal-justice reform efforts. But the data simply doesn’t bear that out. /1 https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905

Look at the chart. Murder rates are up in jurisdictions across the country: in those that have been seriously engaged in criminal-justice reform, and in those that haven’t.

Something else is going on. /2

I’ll pause to note that this makes total sense. Nobody out there in law enforcement isn’t treating murder seriously. There are no prosecutors saying murderers get a free pass.

So it’s not like anybody would think they have license to murder because of justice-reform efforts. /3

It’s also important to note that while murder rates in particular are up, other types of crime are either flat or down.

Violent crime generally is flat. Property crimes are down. Contrary to what some would have you believe, anarchy isn't reigning in the streets. /4

So, what's going on with the murder rate? First, a caveat: the factors involved in crime rates are complex and multi-variable, and it's a fool's errand to try to say "crime increased because of X, and only because of X." /5

But when you see a chart like this in which murder rates are going up *across the country,* I think you can safely say that the reason for that increase is because of something (or somethings) that happened *across the country* in 2020.

Let's be real. That's COVID-19. /6

This pandemic has been incredibly trying for all of us.

We're on edge. We're traumatized. We're unable to engage in normal social interactions. We're frightened of our fellow human beings--any one of whom could be carrying a deadly, transmissible disease. /7

And (anecdotally) what we're seeing is that many people are on a hair-trigger, and are increasingly resolving conflicts with (potentially lethal) violence.

Road rage. Disputes with neighbors, family, and friends. These are all increasingly ending with use of force. /8

It's also notable that gun sales are massively up during 2020. That creates a toxic stew.

More people are engaging in violence to address disputes. More people have access to guns. That means that (1) we have more violent incidents, and (2) more of them can turn deadly. /9

So, what do we do?

The goal must be to prevent these murders from happening in the first place. Everyone in the criminal legal system is going to treat murders seriously when they occur--but by that point, the harm's already been done.

We need to be focused on prevention. /10

That means a couple things. First, we need to do everything possible to get guns out of the hands of those who are most likely to use them.

Someone accused of domestic violence, for example, absolutely should not have access to a gun. /11

Second, we need to be real about the underlying trauma that 2020 has inflicted on all of us.

The pandemic is going to pass. But there are going to be second-order effects. We're going to come through the other side bearing trauma. Many of us will be economically insecure. /12

I worry, in particular, about young people. Think about the effect of this year on kids. They've lost social connection and social education. There's vicarious stress and trauma in the home.

And younger kids, in particular, may have the message that other people=danger. /13

(I'll pause to note that this isn't in any way a critique of the necessary COVID-19 safety measures that have been put into place, & that have saved countless lives. But we need to be real about the longer-term psychological, developmental, educational, and economic effects). /14

We need policymakers to step up. A widely available vaccine won't mean that the effects of the pandemic are over.

We need next to address the societal fallout. That means funds for mental-health services, education, substance-use services--and yep, stimulus funds. /15

We can't arrest, punish, or prosecute our way out of the trauma and societal disruption COVID's wrought. Thinking that we can will cause more lives to be lost.

We need to invest in people, & help Americans through these tough times.

That's how we ensure real safety. /fin