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Some thoughts on Labour and the Brexit deal vote.
Labour is understandably focused on building an electoral coalition for 2024. Everything else is secondary - there's no point having great policy if you're not able to implement it, as we've rediscovered over the past decade./1
Labour is understandably focused on building an electoral coalition for 2024. Everything else is secondary - there's no point having great policy if you're not able to implement it, as we've rediscovered over the past decade./1
It believes that voting for the deal will make the job of building a coalition easier - what better way to put Brexit to bed than vote for the deal and move on? I doubt that reality will allow them that. The next 3-4 years to the election will be dominated by Brexit impacts, /2
meaning that Labour will have to speak out against the inadequacy of the deal and in favour of additions / closer engagement. By voting for the deal now Labour makes that job harder. /3
Labour should also think about where and among whom it's building its coalition. It does need to win back Red Wall seats - but even there it lost significant numbers of Remainers a year ago for being insufficiently anti Brexit, just as it lost Leavers. /4
Some research suggests that Labour Leavers went to the Tories more for their pledges on police officers, nurses and hospitals than Brexit. All polls show that Corbyn was the #1 reason for not voting Labour - not Brexit. /5 https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-nhs-nurses-pledge-red-wall-inquest_uk_5eeb7e4ec5b6c8594c7f3454
Either way, Brexit will only harm communities and the economy in the Red Wall - Labour calling that out now would help them later. Leavers and Remainers are fully aware that Brexit is damaging - Labour could speak to that. /6 https://www.ft.com/content/1ea4214c-98de-42ae-bab9-86eb5aa149d9
Beyond the Red Wall, Labour needs to win back seats in Scotland, the South East and South West. Brexit is not the only issue on which people will cast their vote - but they will take note of the clarity of Labour's opposition and alternative. /7
If Labour failed to criticise Brexit, which is this Govt's signature project, it would be to rerun Ed Miliband's failed 2015 election, where his failure to criticise austerity left the party without a real alternative. /8
Making a pitch for power has to start with criticising the programme of the current government - and Brexit is the heart of Johnson's administration.
Going into an election saying 'our opponent has it about right' is not great politics. /9 https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/labour-will-keep-austerity-says-miliband-1545352
Going into an election saying 'our opponent has it about right' is not great politics. /9 https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/labour-will-keep-austerity-says-miliband-1545352
Granted Labour can criticise Brexit outcomes later - arguably more easily once they're tangible, which happens about 3 days from now. But it only makes its job harder by voting for the deal now, all the more so given abstention is a legitimate position to speak from. /10
Last point - Labour's also made its job harder in Scotland. Voting for the deal is a gift to the SNP, who will say that Westminster parties are united in their support of hard Brexit. Winning back votes in Scotland is just as urgent as the Red Wall - /11
yet has received a fraction of the attention from Labour (for 5+ years, not just in 2020). Starmer's devolution speech last week was a welcome intervention - but Scotland can't be won without addressing its pro-Europeanness, however much Labour may wish otherwise. /12
Worth adding - the Tories are going to portray Starmer as a Remainer whatever he does, and in the end Labour is a pro European party. It's our values, it's better for the all the outcomes we want to achieve, it's where we're heading. /13
