Final national murder update of 2020:

Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). Murder up in 51 of 57, 37 of 58 agencies reporting murder up more than 30%.

Spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5DHMjS14-Rs7XIXOt33Al_rDw/edit#gid=1757262194

Big city trends tend to overstate national trends, so a 5% increase in murder in big cities tends to mean a 2-3% increase nationally. But this year we have no idea what will happen with the national figure.

The largest national % increase ever reported (data since 1960) was 12.7% in 1968 and the largest # increase was 1,938 in 1990. A 15% increase this year (and I think it'll be much larger) would mean 2,400 more murders & be the worst one year increase in murder ever recorded.

You see it in cities big and small, and I'm not counting places like Columbus (OH) that have set annual murder records but I can't find matching YTD data for 2019.

Finally, this is what the national murder rate trend looks like with a 20 or 25% increase in 2020.

Roughly where it was in the late 1990s, down 35-40% from where it was in 1993.