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Simon Stevens has said that 20,426 people are being treated for Covid in hospitals in England, which is higher than the previous peak of about 19,000 in April.
This compares two absolute numbers, but there are serious problems. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55470496
This compares two absolute numbers, but there are serious problems. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55470496
1. It’s winter and we always have more patients in winter than we do in April. For background context let’s compare occupancy and ICU for this December with previous Decembers going back 5 years.
2. Numerically there are more patients but just presenting that as a crude statistic is disingenuous because we also have more beds nationally than April. Without the occupancy % figures it’s impossible for anyone to understand what the inpatient numbers mean.
The NHS should show us overall occupancy, ICU, oxygen beds and mechanical ventilation beds for Covid and non-Covid.
3. This absolute number of 20,426 includes those admitted with Covid and diagnosed with Covid in a hospital setting. Those 2 added together are then presented each day as “hospital admissions”. Most people have NO IDEA the gov dashboard adds these numbers together!
This number should be broken down, by:
- people who go into hospital *because* they have Covid
- nosocomial infections
- those who are routinely tested when they are in for something else and have a + test
- and of those in ICU, how many caught Covid in hospital?
- people who go into hospital *because* they have Covid
- nosocomial infections
- those who are routinely tested when they are in for something else and have a + test
- and of those in ICU, how many caught Covid in hospital?
Questions to these answers would reveal how much of a problem community vs nosocomial infection is, which would help guide decisions about the next useful policies.
4. How many are admitted from care homes vs the community, again of value for guiding policy and understanding the extent of nosocomial transmission in care homes.
5. Update on staffing levels. How many are absent because of testing yet are asymptomatic? What is the latest science on asymptomatic transmission? How confident are we about the reliability of the tests?
IMO a responsible government and NHS would be providing this context.
The use of an absolute total is supposed to create alarm and therefore encourage compliance with with regulations. This tactic is being used repeatedly, which erodes trust and causes unnecessary anxiety.
The use of an absolute total is supposed to create alarm and therefore encourage compliance with with regulations. This tactic is being used repeatedly, which erodes trust and causes unnecessary anxiety.
I have the answers to some of my questions already from different NHS sources, but no one should have to be ferret around for it. It is public health information held by a public health body and belongs in the public domain.
I have asked NHS England for direct answers because it is in the public interest to understand context.
