1/4. In the last 50 years, the US stock market had two lost decades. It also had a 45% drawdown in '73-'74, a 44% drawdown in 2000-'03, and a 50% drawdown from 2007-'09. 20-30% drawdowns happen roughly every 5 years.
2/4. If you call for a crash, you're a stopped clock. You're right every 5 years and you'll get a big one every 15. It's not useful information unless you can predict the timing, magnitude, and have specific trading entry/exit points. No one can do that.
3/4. Similarly, if you have a "never sell" mentality and think you can ride out that kind of volatility: good for you. Most of us don't. It's also easy to have this sort of mentality after a 10-year bull run with relatively modest drawdowns and quick snapbacks.
4/4. What's the solution? I've decided to own some uncorrelated asset classes to smooth the ride, like gold and bonds. I've also decided to pivot my equities towards small-cap value, which has never had a lost decade even though it frequently suffers relative underperformance.
You can follow @ValueStockGeek.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.