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The people mad that I think Tua was the right pick seem to think that franchise QB's grow on trees...
Lets walk through an exercise of how hard it is to get a quality QB.
Time to dive in. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1343618882372685824
Lets walk through an exercise of how hard it is to get a quality QB.
Time to dive in. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1343618882372685824
I am going to equate this to fantasy to illustrate the point. If you dont have a QB that can put up top 12 fantasy seasons you probably have a game manager at best.
Here are the hit rates of top 12 fantasy QB's by draft capital up until 2017 class:
Here are the hit rates of top 12 fantasy QB's by draft capital up until 2017 class:
pick 15-32 of the NFL draft.
Yup, thats 3/14 = 21%
Meaning you would have to spend 5 late firsts to get one guy that has at least one good season.
You'd have to spend 14 first round picks to get a guy with 2 or more top 12 seasons.
Yup, thats 3/14 = 21%
Meaning you would have to spend 5 late firsts to get one guy that has at least one good season.
You'd have to spend 14 first round picks to get a guy with 2 or more top 12 seasons.
2nd round.
2/16 = 12.5%
Enjoy spending 8 2nd round picks to get a guy like Andy Dalton or Derek Carr so you can hope that your franchise upgrades for their entire careers.
2/16 = 12.5%
Enjoy spending 8 2nd round picks to get a guy like Andy Dalton or Derek Carr so you can hope that your franchise upgrades for their entire careers.
Round 3:
1/18 - 5.55%
Aye, we have a true difference maker for the first time since Aaron Rodgers...
Welcome to the club Russell Wilson!
1/18 - 5.55%
Aye, we have a true difference maker for the first time since Aaron Rodgers...
Welcome to the club Russell Wilson!
Round 4:
2/14 - 14%
Could you draft a Kirk Cousins? sure, would you be happy with him? I cant answer that question for you, ask a WFT fan.
2/14 - 14%
Could you draft a Kirk Cousins? sure, would you be happy with him? I cant answer that question for you, ask a WFT fan.
5th round.
Oh-fer
Oh-fer
6th round
2/16 = 12.5%
Tom Brady predates this database but ill give you him.
3/17 and we have another true difference maker!
2/16 = 12.5%
Tom Brady predates this database but ill give you him.
3/17 and we have another true difference maker!
7th round
1/10 = 10%
If Matt Cassell is your franchise savior I am not sure you are going to make it.
1/10 = 10%
If Matt Cassell is your franchise savior I am not sure you are going to make it.
So in total we have:
Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
And depending on if you count Kirk Cousins as a difference maker or not.
I dont like those odds.
Just getting a competent starter after the top 15 picks was a 12/98 chance - 12.2%
Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
And depending on if you count Kirk Cousins as a difference maker or not.
I dont like those odds.
Just getting a competent starter after the top 15 picks was a 12/98 chance - 12.2%
Now lets flip this and say the WFT took Tua or even Herbert...
The group of top 15 picks is MUCH more promising.
20/29 = 69%... Nice.
The group of top 15 picks is MUCH more promising.
20/29 = 69%... Nice.
Of those how many are difference makers? You decide.
But if there is one thing for certain, its that its a helluva lot better rate than hoping to figure it out later.
But if there is one thing for certain, its that its a helluva lot better rate than hoping to figure it out later.
Sure they *could have missed on Tua or Herbert, but at least they'd have taken a high percentage swing at figuring out the most important position in sports.
Taking Chase Young was the safe pick, not the championship pick.
I dont like playing scared.
Taking Chase Young was the safe pick, not the championship pick.
I dont like playing scared.
