1/ ok folks, grab seat coffee & and have a sit down, because we need to talk about a topic that has been largely ignored by the news media & public health pundits. The seasonality of respiratory viruses

#COVID19 #Coronavirus #lockdown #science #data #Canada #Ontario #cdnpoli

2/ The prevalence of resp. viruses (influenza, coronavirus, RSV) is highly seasonal. This review from spring 2020 shows what we have known for decades: resp. viruses are prevalent between fall & spring, peaking in winter. They are not prevalent in warmer months (May-Oct)
#COVID19

3/ Heres another study that shows the seasonal prevalence of coronaviruses. I boxed [] when coronaviruses peak, which you can see occurs in winter months (green bars). This is why resp viruses are often called winter viruses

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4/ Here is how #influenza & coronaviruses cycle throughout the year in #Ontario. You can see the exact same trend; their levels are lowest May-Oct & peak in Jan. Data is for 2013-2020
h/t @rubiconcapital_

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5/ Now that we have established the seasonal prevalence of #influenza & coronaviruses, why is this important? This concept helps to explain hospital capacity issues that occur in these months

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6/ This study shows how hospitalizations from resp. viruses follow the exact same oscillations as the seasonality of these viruses; they peak after Oct & lowest after April. This is what you would expect from a seasonal virus. Data from 1988 to 2002 in #Ontario

#COVID19 #Canada

7/ However, these days we are flooded on a daily basis about how the hospitals are full & bursting w/ patients. 2 questions we need to answer are:

1- Is this something unique to 2020? &

2- What is the current status of resp. virus hospitalizations in #Ontario?

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8/ Question 1: Is the “hospitals are full & bursting” narrative unique to 2020? Apparently not…

9/ How about these news articles from 2016 & 2017. Remember the “we need freezer trailers for dead bodies” fear mongering earlier this year? Not unique to 2020

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10/ Remember the temporary tents put up to house Covid patients (that mostly went unused)? Not unique to 2020. 2018 was a bad flu year, hospitals were bursting & surgeries were postponed

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11/ So it seems that hospitals are operating near to or at capacity almost every flu season. Now to answer Question 2:

What is the current status of resp. virus hospitalizations in Ontario?

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12/ For context, here is the prevalence of influenza for 2018-2019 from Fluwatch (Canada Govt)

#COVID19 #Coronavirus #lockdown #science #data #Canada #Ontario #cdnpoli #onpoli #virus #seasonality

13/ And here is the prevalence of influenza for 2020-2021. Apparently, the flu has completely disappeared in Canada

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14/ Here are the hospitalizations for all Influenza Like Illnesses in Canada. 2020 hospitalizations are significantly lower compared to the last 6 years

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15/ This graph shows Emergency Department visits for respiratory illnesses in Ontario. As you can see, 2020 has significantly lower visits to the Emerge dept. compared to the last 4 years

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16/ So
a) if influenza is barely prevalent in the population,

b) hospitalizations & emergency dept visits for Influenza Like Illnesses are significantly lower compared to the past 5 years, &

c) Hosps are not full of Covid patients, what exactly are the hospitals bursting with?

17/ Even the media has started to question these claims of “hospitals at capacity”. The data does not support the claim that our hospitals are bursting

#COVID19 #Coronavirus #lockdown #science #data #Canada #Ontario #cdnpoli #onpoli #virus #seasonality

18/ A final question worth answering: Does SARS-CoV-2 follow the usual coronavirus seasonality? For this, we need to re-visit Edgar Hope-Simpson’s work from decades ago

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19/ Here is a figure from his book, showing the shape of the Gompertz curves for different global regions. Pay attention to the Northern Temperate & Southern tropical region curves. Do the #COVID19 curves follow these trajectories?

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20/ Here are two examples of mortality curves from Northern Temperate + Southern Tropical regions. They follow the same trajectories laid out by Hope-Simpson 28 years ago. So it seems that SARS-CoV-2 follows #seasonality as well

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21/ So as the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 begins to decline around March & April & cases fall, as do all resp viruses, ask yourself: was this due to lockdowns & vaccines, or is #COVID19 following the laws of seasonality?
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #lockdown #data #Canada #Ontario #onpoli