#Lockdowns have probably killed at least the equivalent of about 20 million people just by making our lives worse. That's 3 Holocausts!

Quick math:

7,000,000,000 people × 2% of your life × 15% quality reduction = 21,000,000 lost life equivalents.

#Covid19 itself has killed 1.7 million people, but once you weight that by remaining years of life it goes down a lot, probably something like 0.3 million life equivalents. That's only 1/20th of a Holocaust.

#Vaccines are close enough to mass deployment that it no longer makes sense to ease restrictions and surrender to the disease. It would cause more disruption than locking down and waiting for vaccines.

But we SHOULD have vaccinated over the summer of 2020.

You can do similar math on a country-by country basis. Lockdowns did way more harm than the virus, but they also weren't strict enough to eradicate the virus and let people get back to normal life. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication

My recommendation is that The Western World should remain in strict lockdown until 75% of the population has been vaccinated, at which point R will crash to very close to 0 and we will simultaneously eradicate and get herd immunity. https://twitter.com/LucioMM1/status/1343709395293769728