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1/15
With this old Satoshi post circulating at the moment, I wonder if I'm one of the few people that finds this `thought experiment` more bearish than bullish for Bitcoin?
It also makes Ethereum *FAR* more interesting in my mind.
With this old Satoshi post circulating at the moment, I wonder if I'm one of the few people that finds this `thought experiment` more bearish than bullish for Bitcoin?
It also makes Ethereum *FAR* more interesting in my mind.
2/15
Satoshi knew that you don't derive value from the single magical property of transportability alone.
It needed some initial value spark.
That value spark gives it a floor and allows it as a medium-of-remittance.
Satoshi knew that you don't derive value from the single magical property of transportability alone.
It needed some initial value spark.
That value spark gives it a floor and allows it as a medium-of-remittance.
3/15
Not a medium-of-exchange, not money, not an investment, not a store-of-value; a medium of temporary transference and remittance. Something much more stable.
Not a medium-of-exchange, not money, not an investment, not a store-of-value; a medium of temporary transference and remittance. Something much more stable.
4/15
For something to be used either as a store of value, or remittance, we have to be able to either:
1) Cash out
2) Spent it and have someone else cash out
3) Have it be so ubiquitous we can spend it without cashing out
For something to be used either as a store of value, or remittance, we have to be able to either:
1) Cash out
2) Spent it and have someone else cash out
3) Have it be so ubiquitous we can spend it without cashing out
5/15
#1 isn't possible. Not everyone can cash out Bitcoin at a level equal or greater than their deposited value.
It's zero-sum. If you made money on Bitcoin it is because someone had to buy it at a higher price.
#1 isn't possible. Not everyone can cash out Bitcoin at a level equal or greater than their deposited value.
It's zero-sum. If you made money on Bitcoin it is because someone had to buy it at a higher price.
6/15
That isn't a store of value, because somewhere along the line, someone has to be the bag holder who loses the value, a system can't infinitely grow without value creation.
That isn't a store of value, because somewhere along the line, someone has to be the bag holder who loses the value, a system can't infinitely grow without value creation.
7/15
#2 Runs into the same problem, plus, maxi's constantly call you some poor weak handed person if you sell or use your Bitcoin. You are just supposed to blindly HODL forever (while the maxi's sell to you)
#2 Runs into the same problem, plus, maxi's constantly call you some poor weak handed person if you sell or use your Bitcoin. You are just supposed to blindly HODL forever (while the maxi's sell to you)
8/15
#3 Doesn't work either because Bitcoin isn't going to be a primary payment method, it is inherently bad at payments and why the initial narrative of sovereign internet money disappeared a long time ago.
#3 Doesn't work either because Bitcoin isn't going to be a primary payment method, it is inherently bad at payments and why the initial narrative of sovereign internet money disappeared a long time ago.
9/15
Bitcoin has many *great* characteristics, and can absolutely evolve to solve these problems. But the loud maxi cult of absolutists think BTC is infallible in its current form and would rather not change a thing.
Bitcoin has many *great* characteristics, and can absolutely evolve to solve these problems. But the loud maxi cult of absolutists think BTC is infallible in its current form and would rather not change a thing.
10/15
So Bitcoin can absolutely go up and up, until a point, and who knows where that point is. It's already much higher than most of us ever thought.
And, many people will get insanely rich along the way.
So Bitcoin can absolutely go up and up, until a point, and who knows where that point is. It's already much higher than most of us ever thought.
And, many people will get insanely rich along the way.
11/15
But, if nothing changes, then there likely comes a day, either this year, or generations from now, when the hammer drops, and it ends in tears.
I hope that's not the case, I hope Bitcoin keeps moving forward and can recapture an internet money narrative but I'm skeptical.
But, if nothing changes, then there likely comes a day, either this year, or generations from now, when the hammer drops, and it ends in tears.
I hope that's not the case, I hope Bitcoin keeps moving forward and can recapture an internet money narrative but I'm skeptical.
12/15
And I still own some Bitcoin, because it is hard to ignore the economics of our current climate. There is money to be made. I just won't blindly push it on to uninformed people.
And I still own some Bitcoin, because it is hard to ignore the economics of our current climate. There is money to be made. I just won't blindly push it on to uninformed people.
13/15
On the other hand, Ethereum doesn't have some single magic principle.
It's a platform that allows real applications that create value, and that value gets captured by the ecosystem.
On the other hand, Ethereum doesn't have some single magic principle.
It's a platform that allows real applications that create value, and that value gets captured by the ecosystem.
14/15
It's the difference between an investment firm and a manufacturing firm. One extracts value by moving zero-sum money around, and one creates something new that adds value and captures a sub-portion of the new value.
It's the difference between an investment firm and a manufacturing firm. One extracts value by moving zero-sum money around, and one creates something new that adds value and captures a sub-portion of the new value.
15/15
I don't have the same reprehensions about Ethereum's long term trajectory, because it is building a solid foundation of value.
As long as we don't fall into the same trap as Bitcoin maxi's and are open to being mailable and evolving, the sky is the limit.
I don't have the same reprehensions about Ethereum's long term trajectory, because it is building a solid foundation of value.
As long as we don't fall into the same trap as Bitcoin maxi's and are open to being mailable and evolving, the sky is the limit.
