Will 2020 be the warmest year on record? Yes, but only in some datasets. Here are the odds we'd expect of a new record given data through November:

NASA - 99%
NOAA - 62%
HadCRUT4 - 25%
Berkeley- 96%
Cowtan&Way - 48%
Copernicus - 95%

However, we also know a bit about how December is shaping up, using up-to-date reanalysis data. It looks to be a fairly cool month, nearly 0.3C cooler than the record-warm November:

If we take the reanalysis results for December and plug them into each dataset (acknowledging that in practice they will differ a bit):

NASA: 1st
NOAA: 2nd
HadCRUT4: 2nd
Berkeley: 2nd
Cowtan&Way: 2nd
Copernicus: 2nd

So in most datasets 2020 will be more or less tied with 2016 – at least within the margin of uncertainty in our global temperature reconstructions. Thats remarkable in a sense, given that 2020 is a La Nina year and 2016 was a super-El Nino event.

Ultimately the media cares about new records a lot more than the climate does; whether 2020 is slightly above or slightly below 2016, what matters for the climate is the long-term warming trend, where we see clear evidence of human activity changing the climate:

For more on the odds that 2020 will be the warmest year on record, @daisydunnesci has an excellent piece in @Independent today: https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/2020-hottest-year-record-climate-temperature-b1778303.html