2/ The study simulated climates of a hundred thousand planets, simplifying them to a series of mathematical equations, and kept track of the temperatures over billions of years. Each planet was simulated 100 times with slightly different initial conditions to see what happened.
3/ How many planets had liveable temps for all that time over every run?

*One*. Ouch.

But a lot remained habitable at least once out of 100 runs each.

What he showed is that it's a mix of climate feedbacks and random chance that keeps a planet liveable over the eons.
4/ The sims weren't full-up climate models, so this isn't a hugely realistic study. But it's a cool first step in understanding habitability this way, and can guide future studies.And it makes predictions that can be tested.
5/ There's a philosophical outcome as well, helping us appreciate how resilient a planet can be.

BUT that's only looking at temperature. Our species is far more fragile than that. We have created a civilization where we depend on things not changing. If they do, catastrophe.
6/ And we ourselves are the agent of that change. Fiddling with the climate, overfarming, overfishing... we've set ourselves up to be easily toppled if something happens. A major solar storm, an asteroid impact... we need to make sure we're more robust.
7/ I'm rather hoping that the Biden Administration coming in will help there. Less reliance on fossil fuel, better trade conditions, a desire to be connected with others and the environment itself. All these can help us bend, not break, if something happens. We'll see.
You can follow @BadAstronomer.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.