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2020 Mega Betting Thread What I’ve Learned About Betting in 2020
I thought I would update my 2019 Betting Thread as there has been much to still learn & assimilate, new people & resources to follow & I want to continue paying it forward to help others
Betting is not easy like #Gumbling #Twatter would have you believe. It’s damn hard work & the perma-winning (often ‘altered’) betslips plus inclusion of ‘personal bets’ that you see posted on many timelines cover up many sins e.g. unposted losses, Telegram account deletions etc.
Twitter is awash with multi-bet promotions. Tipsters love advertising a £10-1000 roller that won (2yrs ago), ignoring the other 30 that lost
Be wary of accas & betbuilders: very few are profitable regularly & there's a reason the bookies love them
Be wary of accas & betbuilders: very few are profitable regularly & there's a reason the bookies love them
Statscards: there’s never been so much widely-available info for punters
Before paying for datasheets/statspacks, do a quick internet search: is it available for free?
Some may pay for the convenience of having things nicely colour-coded but is the info profitable longterm?
Before paying for datasheets/statspacks, do a quick internet search: is it available for free?
Some may pay for the convenience of having things nicely colour-coded but is the info profitable longterm?
My personal opinion is that the only winners from these stat packs are the sellers: the bet wins & the seller can fit the winner to ‘their’ statscard, the bet loses but the seller is only providing data for punters to make their own decision
No responsibility or liability
No responsibility or liability
See betting as more of a hobby to earn extra treats. Earning a living as a pro-punter is difficult, rare (an outright lie in most bios) & is extremely unlikely to be you: be realistic about what you want to achieve
Only use money for betting that you can afford to lose
Only use money for betting that you can afford to lose
Set aside a separate betting bank across a number of bookmakers to ensure you get the best odds. Ensure you have access to an Exchange account
I would recommend considering an Asian broker to get access to bookies otherwise unavailable in your country
I would recommend considering an Asian broker to get access to bookies otherwise unavailable in your country
Divide the bank into 100u & use discipline when staking (I recommend a max 2u/bet)
More & more tipsters recommend huge 5-10u stakes on single picks, which can be misleading when determining whether their system is profitable longterm
Always ask for a level-stake P/L record
More & more tipsters recommend huge 5-10u stakes on single picks, which can be misleading when determining whether their system is profitable longterm
Always ask for a level-stake P/L record
There are multiple different staking plans - the article below from @12Xpert is worth a read:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/how-to-choose-staking-method-based-on-your-profile/DG52MTLECE37V733
Fibonacci & Martingale staking are best avoided
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/how-to-choose-staking-method-based-on-your-profile/DG52MTLECE37V733
Fibonacci & Martingale staking are best avoided
Here is a nice article on reading odds from @Eastbridge_SB: https://eastbridge-sb.com/betting-guide-how-odds-work/
@12Xpert's website https://www.football-data.co.uk is an absolute goldmine of articles, datasheets & ratings!
It includes regularly-updated historical odds & data which can be used for model building
All of his articles may be found here: https://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/archive.php
It includes regularly-updated historical odds & data which can be used for model building
All of his articles may be found here: https://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/archive.php
@12Xpert’s historical data can be parsed into the @BetGPS worksheets (found here: https://betgps.com/betting-data.php) for a powerful statistical betting resource
Here’s how: https://twitter.com/valuesportbets/status/1175079021073317888?s=21
Here’s how: https://twitter.com/valuesportbets/status/1175079021073317888?s=21
Here are some useful Value Articles by
@Pinnacle
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/what-is-a-value-bet/MDFJ8GATUVW3M3MW
@12Xpert
https://betting.football-data.co.uk/value.php
@SBCinfo
https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/understanding_value_betting/
@Pinnacle
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/what-is-a-value-bet/MDFJ8GATUVW3M3MW
@12Xpert
https://betting.football-data.co.uk/value.php
@SBCinfo
https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/understanding_value_betting/
Many of these cognitive biases apply to betting:
This was a really interesting thread from a few years ago looking at the psychology behind gambling & some recommended reading material 
https://twitter.com/valuesportbets/status/1010217054937501697
https://twitter.com/valuesportbets/status/1010217054937501697
Some recommended betting resource accounts worth looking at:
@Bettin_gs
@poison_foot
@soccerstatscom
@oddsportal
@flashscoresuk
@FcTables_com
@Stats_DontLie
@InfoGolApp
@UnderstatXG
@WeLoveBettingUK
@WhoScored
@football_xg
@TrademateSports
@fbref
@Bettin_gs
@poison_foot
@soccerstatscom
@oddsportal
@flashscoresuk
@FcTables_com
@Stats_DontLie
@InfoGolApp
@UnderstatXG
@WeLoveBettingUK
@WhoScored
@football_xg
@TrademateSports
@fbref
@PinnacleSports is considered one of the 'sharpest' bookmakers
Although not currently operating in the UK, the freely-available betting resources section found on their website has many excellent articles on all aspects of sports betting:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-resources
Although not currently operating in the UK, the freely-available betting resources section found on their website has many excellent articles on all aspects of sports betting:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-resources
Blogs & Podcasts I enjoy reading & listening to:
@calciocassini
@FTSIncome
@BettingPod
@TVBBlog
@day25
@churchofbetting
@savethepunter
These have all stood the test of time & provide many useful lessons to be learned & important principles to take away
@calciocassini
@FTSIncome
@BettingPod
@TVBBlog
@day25
@churchofbetting
@savethepunter
These have all stood the test of time & provide many useful lessons to be learned & important principles to take away
1/ Here is a list of Twitter accounts I enjoy following, who provide value to me for gambling methods, advice, discussion & principles, in no particular order:
@RobHawley81
@statsbet
@meatmansoccer
@RobertReid64
@CherryAnalysts
@Bet_On_Value
@OversSpecialist
@JM5portsAnalyst
@RobHawley81
@statsbet
@meatmansoccer
@RobertReid64
@CherryAnalysts
@Bet_On_Value
@OversSpecialist
@JM5portsAnalyst
2/ More accounts that add value to my timeline:
@SBCInfo
@SolidPunts
@JeevesOdds
@BettingIsCool
@aluckyaday
@Enigma_betting
@foxpunter
@MarkOHaire
@GabSutton
@entwolken
@DarranPearce
@LeighMonty12
@wizard_season
@blandc_1996
@SportTrading_UK
@TomLove_18
@DiemsCarping
@SBCInfo
@SolidPunts
@JeevesOdds
@BettingIsCool
@aluckyaday
@Enigma_betting
@foxpunter
@MarkOHaire
@GabSutton
@entwolken
@DarranPearce
@LeighMonty12
@wizard_season
@blandc_1996
@SportTrading_UK
@TomLove_18
@DiemsCarping
Recommended accounts that I have discovered this year:
@NeilMac555
@againsttheodds
@BowersCo
@MaccasValueBets
@betlikeharout
@bet_bonanza
@TipsterCharlie
@AlexVella_
@ShezterP
@NeilMac555
@againsttheodds
@BowersCo
@MaccasValueBets
@betlikeharout
@bet_bonanza
@TipsterCharlie
@AlexVella_
@ShezterP
I wouldn't normally recommend a 'rival tipping group' but the 3 guys @TheValueCollect are all doing it the right way
@PDLU23, @SObettor & @tiptoptoptips are decent, transparent & profitable tipsters so check out their accounts & website: https://www.thevaluecollective.co.uk
@PDLU23, @SObettor & @tiptoptoptips are decent, transparent & profitable tipsters so check out their accounts & website: https://www.thevaluecollective.co.uk
Finally: @daspunter
@DasStg, @AcornerTurning, & myself are part of something unusual: a transparent group that is profitable longterm
Over 930u profit from more than 8000u level units staked
Very few services can rival our consistency & longevity
DM to join us
@DasStg, @AcornerTurning, & myself are part of something unusual: a transparent group that is profitable longterm
Over 930u profit from more than 8000u level units staked
Very few services can rival our consistency & longevity
DM to join us
Take-Home
Understand value & probabilities
Manage your bankroll sensibly
Price is everything
Markets evolve & so must you too
Most stats are already factored into the price & on their own hold little value
Follow, engage & learn from those who add value to your timeline
Understand value & probabilities
Manage your bankroll sensibly
Price is everything
Markets evolve & so must you too
Most stats are already factored into the price & on their own hold little value
Follow, engage & learn from those who add value to your timeline
