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More infectious SARS-CoV2 VOC 202012/01 strain is spreading at a similar rate across the whole UK. Clearly not a founder effect. >90% of all infections will be by this strain across the UK by February 1st. See code & data at https://github.com/tomwenseleers/newcovid/blob/master/logistic%20fit%20growth%20rate%20VOC%20202012_01%20by%20region.R
Growth rate translates to selective advantage of 56%-87% per generation of 6.5 d (avg. s=70%, 65-74% 95% CLs). This study, https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf, came at estimate of strain being 56% more infectious. This implies that without extra measures R values would go up by this amount.
The study also calculated that either much stricter measures (such as prolonged remote education) or vaccinating 0.4% of the whole population per day would be required to contain it. The severity & infection fatality rate is most likely similar to that of the original type.
The variant has already been picked up in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, France, Ireland, Israel, Lebanon, Japan, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden & Switzerland. Matter of mere months before incidence of strain will be like in UK.
Consistent with an increased transmissibility of the UK variant is the fact that viral loads of patients carrying the variant are much higher, which are reflected in lower Ct values in the used TaqPath assay (S-neg are samples with the UK variant). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1.full
New 2nd technical report by @PHE_england on the VOC202012/01 variant contains a cohort study, which shows that there are no statistically significant differences in
hospitalisation and 28-day case fatality between cases with the variant & wild-type cases. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948121/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf
hospitalisation and 28-day case fatality between cases with the variant & wild-type cases. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948121/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf
