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1/19 FABRICATING LUCK (A FRAMEWORK FOR NON-PLANNING)
Two truths:
1. There are much more good things impossible plan for than good things you can plan for
2. Your future selves are wiser than you present and past selves.
Two truths:
1. There are much more good things impossible plan for than good things you can plan for
2. Your future selves are wiser than you present and past selves.
3/ There are two ideas I've been using to fabricate luck. One is "luck surface area" (see QT). The other is the 4 types of luck popularized by @pmarca https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1252669473464565760
4/ To make this more than just idle theorizing, let me share my experience with http://accessiblegenomics.org , the result of applying these principles in the past couple of years. 2020 was a crazy year, but I got lucky so many times, it feels miraculous. https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1341289968019202048
5/ I was very lucky with getting the right teammates (some of which are world experts in portable genomics). We got lucky in getting funding and donations in kind.
Those lucky breaks wouldn't have happened without deliberately expanding our luck surface area.
Those lucky breaks wouldn't have happened without deliberately expanding our luck surface area.
6/ You see me posting Roam and PKM threads in this account (here's a list: http://roamfu.com ), but I also have a lot genomics threads at @kcorazo (list: http://scrapbox.io/kahlil/Genomics_Twitter_Threads)
It is easy to tweet about things you cannot stop thinking about.
1 more midwit meme sorry lol
It is easy to tweet about things you cannot stop thinking about.
1 more midwit meme sorry lol
7/ Note the invisible numbers game here. 80/20 or even power law.
80% of your good fortune will come from 20% of the things you are passionate about
80% of serendipities will come from 20% of those you reach out to
80% of project outcomes come from 20% of your team
80% of your good fortune will come from 20% of the things you are passionate about
80% of serendipities will come from 20% of those you reach out to
80% of project outcomes come from 20% of your team
8/ So you'd want to increase the number of things you are passionate about, and your communication of those things. You'd want to increase the people you reach out to. (For volunteer projects at least) you'd want to increase your team size. https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1276439432384692227
9/ Specific example. My threads about journal articles (eg, QT) get me followers in genomics. When I thought of a project, I went through my follower list and invited PhDs and professional scientist to join. Only a few responded but it was enough. https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1258698778606858240
10/ Same thing with this call for donations. We only got 2, but that was enough.
Building the brand of "that guy who wants to bring genomics to the global south" with my threads probably helped. https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1332963985935667203
Building the brand of "that guy who wants to bring genomics to the global south" with my threads probably helped. https://twitter.com/kcorazo/status/1332963985935667203
11/ #1 barrier is fear of embarrassment.
I inadvertently killed this fear when I had to do sales to survive in business. Once you hit a certain volume (eg, sales leads actively pursued), you are numbed by the NOs. Occasional YESes give make it a dopamine slot machine.
I inadvertently killed this fear when I had to do sales to survive in business. Once you hit a certain volume (eg, sales leads actively pursued), you are numbed by the NOs. Occasional YESes give make it a dopamine slot machine.
12/ In 4 types of luck, you can't do anything with #1 except to notice it (tools below)
Increasing luck surface area is essentially increasing #2.
Increasing knowledge and knowhow increases #3 (mindfulness also helps)
#4 is where Roam comes in https://twitter.com/nivi/status/1094940675353784320
Increasing luck surface area is essentially increasing #2.
Increasing knowledge and knowhow increases #3 (mindfulness also helps)
#4 is where Roam comes in https://twitter.com/nivi/status/1094940675353784320
13/ My second brain used to be distributed. Trello for business. OneNote for personal stuff. Evernote for academic work.
Now everything is in Roam. It goes beyond being in one software. They are forced to live beside each other in daily pages.
Now everything is in Roam. It goes beyond being in one software. They are forced to live beside each other in daily pages.
14/ A common #roamcult moment: realizing your biological brain is becoming more networked, like it is trained by your tool. It was in that magical phase when Roam clicks that the ff got mashed up into an ikigai project:
genomics
(zero-to-one) project management
developing world
genomics
(zero-to-one) project management
developing world
15/ To fabricate type 4 luck, the most important question to answer is **WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING THAT ONLY I COULD DO DURING THIS PARTICULAR SITUATION?**
The clearer and the deeper your varied interests are, the easier it is to answer this.
The clearer and the deeper your varied interests are, the easier it is to answer this.
16/ Two practices that helped me notice La Fortuna when she appears:
- daily gratitude list (this is a gift that just keeps on giving)
- [[The Huddle]]. The original name is The Mastermind, but that's a terrible brandname, right? Can we please change it? https://medium.com/life-tactics/happiness-and-self-mastery-despite-my-monkey-brain-784e1a8927c2
![16/ Two practices that helped me notice La Fortuna when she appears:- daily gratitude list (this is a gift that just keeps on giving)- [[The Huddle]]. The original name is The Mastermind, but that's a terrible brandname, right? Can we please change it? https://medium.com/life-tactics/happiness-and-self-mastery-despite-my-monkey-brain-784e1a8927c2](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqVM_P5VoAIGFpa.png "16/ Two practices that helped me notice La Fortuna when she appears:- daily gratitude list (this is a gift that just keeps on giving)- [[The Huddle]]. The original name is The Mastermind, but that's a terrible brandname, right? Can we please change it? https://medium.com/life-tactics/happiness-and-self-mastery-despite-my-monkey-brain-784e1a8927c2")
- daily gratitude list (this is a gift that just keeps on giving)
- [[The Huddle]]. The original name is The Mastermind, but that's a terrible brandname, right? Can we please change it? https://medium.com/life-tactics/happiness-and-self-mastery-despite-my-monkey-brain-784e1a8927c2
17/ The Stallion and Rider productivity model fits quite well with fabricating luck. This model works best with slack (freedom to choose what your day will become, when the day comes). When Lady Luck appears, you're free to say Yes to her. https://twitter.com/Roamfu/status/1278321043623555072
18/ @CompliceGoals has a secret level in their Goal Crafting Intensive (unlocked by skipping the goal crafting part lolz) that has toolkits which help make the most of good fortune. Screenshots below. They look like good year end/start exercises. I might do some of them.
19/19 I'm trying to make sense of the fortune I've experienced in the past year, after focusing on luck surface area and maximizing (or at least being mindful) of the 4 types of luck. This thread is the first pass. I hope we can think together about this. Replies appreciated.
20/ P.S. Formula to surface ideas to manifest [[extreme people get extreme results]]
Who among x would go so far as to y? (said like a gangster)
Eg, x = 3rd world bioentrepreneurs; y = lead a project like http://accessiblegenomics.org for ultralearning
x = founders; y = start a cult
![20/ P.S. Formula to surface ideas to manifest [[extreme people get extreme results]]Who among x would go so far as to y? (said like a gangster)Eg, x = 3rd world bioentrepreneurs; y = lead a project like http://accessiblegenomics.org for ultralearningx = founders; y = start a cult](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqXnAQLVgAA4DzY.png "20/ P.S. Formula to surface ideas to manifest [[extreme people get extreme results]]Who among x would go so far as to y? (said like a gangster)Eg, x = 3rd world bioentrepreneurs; y = lead a project like http://accessiblegenomics.org for ultralearningx = founders; y = start a cult")
Who among x would go so far as to y? (said like a gangster)
Eg, x = 3rd world bioentrepreneurs; y = lead a project like http://accessiblegenomics.org for ultralearning
x = founders; y = start a cult
21/ Two luck playbooks
@callicrates_: befriend power and money. Luck is *conferred* on you
@ValaAfshar: be so good they can't ignore you
h/t @DaveGulimlim https://twitter.com/callicrates_/status/1346144397394661382
@callicrates_: befriend power and money. Luck is *conferred* on you
@ValaAfshar: be so good they can't ignore you
h/t @DaveGulimlim https://twitter.com/callicrates_/status/1346144397394661382
22/ Via negativa. Rule out the impossible.
The question though is how do you make the best subsets of the possible more probable for you?
Forecasting is betting on the unpredictable future. Fabricating luck is influencing the unplannable future. https://twitter.com/Kpaxs/status/1348868765560299527
The question though is how do you make the best subsets of the possible more probable for you?
Forecasting is betting on the unpredictable future. Fabricating luck is influencing the unplannable future. https://twitter.com/Kpaxs/status/1348868765560299527
23/ @nntaleb was really the one who got me started thinking like this: probabilistically. I should go through Antifragile again, with the goal of seeking tools for fabricating luck. That books is probably where I'll find them. https://twitter.com/Kpaxs/status/1348931466412126208
24/ Beautiful paradox from @naval
When fabricating luck, the plan itself is useless, but the planning is pretty useful. It lets you imagine possible futures. You can then cap the downside and increase the probability of the upside. https://twitter.com/jmikolay/status/1364339946174242822
When fabricating luck, the plan itself is useless, but the planning is pretty useful. It lets you imagine possible futures. You can then cap the downside and increase the probability of the upside. https://twitter.com/jmikolay/status/1364339946174242822
25/ [[optionality]] is an important part of fabricating luck
@MeadowsRichard do you talk about luck in your book? https://twitter.com/jmikolay/status/1364339949265379340
@MeadowsRichard do you talk about luck in your book? https://twitter.com/jmikolay/status/1364339949265379340
