not only worse, but far worse https://twitter.com/enbrown/status/1343522879024082944

However organized and “noble” George W. Bush was in his personal life is near irrelevant for assessing a presidential legacy. The fairest criterion is portfolio inherited versus portfolio bequeathed— so the US in 2001 vs. 2009. It was a disaster. The worst trajectory in history.

Based on most everyone I’ve spoken to, George W. Bush’s White House was the best “run” in my lifetime. Cheney was apparently incredible in meetings, intimidatingly effective. Less chaotic than Clinton or Trump, less ponderous than Obama, less aristocratic than GHWB.

The problem? That admin’s goals — neoconservatism, uber-financialization, uncritical globalization — have been discredited by history. So it was actually quite terrible that George W. Bush was effective. That he doesn’t mount a vigorous defense of his legacy speaks to his shame.

Trump’s White House is probably most analogous to Clinton’s, at least in my lifetime — a real change of the guard, scandals sexual and financial, a wildcat environment. Clinton was more intellectual— the lawyer’s bull session vs. Trump, the ex-casino executive.

But the result was sort of the same. Like during Clinton: even though the opposition to the president was sort of lunatic, there was an incredible economy and the USA didn’t start any new wars (though there was one questionable intervention, Balkans for Bill, Iran for Trump).

Something the absolute Trump critics will have to grapple with is that as of February 2020, this country was lowkey in pretty great shape. Like the 90s, it maybe didn’t feel like it at the time. But it was there. Another parallel with Bill Clinton. Consider how much worse it got.

Consider Trump’s term as of Feb.: Confronting China and some more immigration enforcement didn’t tank the economy— the opposite. Tight labor market. But the supply siders weren’t totally wrong— taxes and regs did appear to be stalling the economy under Obama. There was progress.

Know someone who’s known all of the recent presidents and said what distinguishes Trump is that he is the only one for whom the presidency didn’t change him, at all. It was ultimately was a handicap. He didn’t expand his base. He responded incoherently to crisis.

I would add that being revolting to a majority of women and a supermajority of young people is a problem. Style matters. Even if you can win power, you’ll never wield it. Anyone looking to succeed Trump will have to learn from his undoing.

Getting back to George W. Bush: what makes Trump a clearly “less worse” president than George W. Bush is he didn’t cause his crisis. He got hit with COVID. Bush invaded Iraq. Sorry.

Another distinction that will age Trump better than Bush is that his undoing wasn’t the result of signature policies. There wasn’t a major border crisis because of enforcement. Trade war didn’t tank the economy. But Iraq and Bush’s “ownership society” directly begot his ruin.