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THREAD: Some information on the spread of the new Covid variant across England from @ONS infection survey - ONLY goes up to 18th December. We urgently need last week's data. BUT up to 18th Dec this is where we were:
The following plots show the proportion of the ONS sample who tested positive for Covid broken down by whether it was "normal" Covid (blue) or the new variant (red).
In London, SE and East of England the new variant was a small proportion of overall infections until end Nov, when it started taking off. Its rapid spread and dominance in this corner of England is pretty evident..
In Midlands so far it is not dominating - in fact to 18 Dec it was shrinking slightly. This is really excellent news - has it stayed that way? Govt dashboard says cases rising in Midlands. But in SW, variant increasing its share. Latest SW case data shows Covid surging :-(
In the North a different picture again. Stead decline in NW, but mainly in "normal Covid". NE and Yorks again decline mainly in normal covid -most recent days sees small increase in variant share too.
Are these areas going to go same way as South? Hope not but Xmas was a big risk. Cases rising in all areas to 22nd Dec (Gov dashboard & KCL covid symptom tracker app) - at very least giving new variant chance to spread. Stay tuned for the next update (no idea when it will come!).
And finally thank you v much to @cfinnecy for pointing this data to me!! /END
