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Lots of recent analysis plays up the importance of exposing hostile Russian intelligence activity as a core part of the Western response.
But this is flawed because exposure isn’t enough - and can backfire
Here’s what recent research tells us ...
1/7
But this is flawed because exposure isn’t enough - and can backfire
Here’s what recent research tells us ...
1/7
Exposure isn’t “a switch”. To have consequences it requires revelation too: “a collective recognition that something has happened”. See @stamp in @SecDialogue 2/7 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0967010620904576
@ThomasEason_ in @BritJPIR similarly tells us that exposure needs to be accompanied by politicisation to have effect.
Exposure without narrative/coverage among target audience is inconsequential. Exposure is what observers make of it 3/7 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369148120930588
Exposure without narrative/coverage among target audience is inconsequential. Exposure is what observers make of it 3/7 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369148120930588
For @carsonaust in @IntOrgJournal acknowledgement is vital.
exposure without acknowledgement can prevent escalation but allows conflict to stay in the “backstage”.
4/7 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/facing-off-and-saving-face-covert-intervention-and-escalation-management-in-the-korean-war/2C2A0D804CD6EAC5DB675A9FEEC876DA
exposure without acknowledgement can prevent escalation but allows conflict to stay in the “backstage”.
4/7 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/facing-off-and-saving-face-covert-intervention-and-escalation-management-in-the-korean-war/2C2A0D804CD6EAC5DB675A9FEEC876DA
Similarly, Aldrich and I argue in @IAJournal_CH that exposure won’t really deter covert ops because states exploit the ambiguity of implausible deniability
5/7 https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/94/3/477/4992414
5/7 https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/94/3/477/4992414
And @JacobOt90719397 and @gametheory101 find in @ISQ_Jrnl that exposing the action of a “resolved” state can actually cause that state to double down on its hostile activity - so be careful!
6/7 https://academic.oup.com/isq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/isq/sqaa081/5995584
6/7 https://academic.oup.com/isq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/isq/sqaa081/5995584
Conclusion:
Exposure is not a panacea. It will have little effect unless accompanied by revelation / politicisation / acknowledgement
- and it could backfire
7/7
Exposure is not a panacea. It will have little effect unless accompanied by revelation / politicisation / acknowledgement
- and it could backfire
7/7
