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[QUICK THREAD: 3.5%]
1/18
Not to jinx it and more importantly, not to celebrate premature optimism (barely been two years since it backfired last), but the signs do look promising.
Here's six key indications:
1/18
Not to jinx it and more importantly, not to celebrate premature optimism (barely been two years since it backfired last), but the signs do look promising.
Here's six key indications:
2/18
A) Allies feeling the heat and threatening to act even in strongholds hitherto deemed invincible, such as Haryana. Even the most inconsequential of political sell-outs have a better feel of their constituencies than we're comfortable granting. https://www.india.com/news/india/farmers-protest-will-be-first-to-resign-if-i-fail-to-ensure-msp-says-dushyant-chautala-4260479/
A) Allies feeling the heat and threatening to act even in strongholds hitherto deemed invincible, such as Haryana. Even the most inconsequential of political sell-outs have a better feel of their constituencies than we're comfortable granting. https://www.india.com/news/india/farmers-protest-will-be-first-to-resign-if-i-fail-to-ensure-msp-says-dushyant-chautala-4260479/
3/18
B) Gurudwara optics. This is a saffron outfit with the Khalistan bogey well-entrenched in its base. There should be no need to appease the community, unless...
The base didn't buy the bogey as readily as expected? https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/modi-visits-gurudwara-rakabganj/article33379726.ece
B) Gurudwara optics. This is a saffron outfit with the Khalistan bogey well-entrenched in its base. There should be no need to appease the community, unless...
The base didn't buy the bogey as readily as expected? https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/modi-visits-gurudwara-rakabganj/article33379726.ece
4/18
C) No major act of State repression against the protestors despite the constant reinforcement of the latter's resolve. Had the whole nation been with the government and the protests so insignificant, the whole thing would've been crushed by now.
C) No major act of State repression against the protestors despite the constant reinforcement of the latter's resolve. Had the whole nation been with the government and the protests so insignificant, the whole thing would've been crushed by now.
5/18
D) No non-State actor in the game yet. Especially the fucking out of some very confident threats from the likes of Ragini Tiwari. Remember Kapil Mishra and Gopal Sharma during Shaheen Bagh? No such audacity this time. Have they recognized what they're up against here?
D) No non-State actor in the game yet. Especially the fucking out of some very confident threats from the likes of Ragini Tiwari. Remember Kapil Mishra and Gopal Sharma during Shaheen Bagh? No such audacity this time. Have they recognized what they're up against here?
5/18
E) Multiple official spins around the bills in question. There was barely any such attempt for CAA and NRC which were always spinned as dogwhistles for their own base. This time, they're visibly scrambling to convince the aggrieved. This lot isn't a walkover.
E) Multiple official spins around the bills in question. There was barely any such attempt for CAA and NRC which were always spinned as dogwhistles for their own base. This time, they're visibly scrambling to convince the aggrieved. This lot isn't a walkover.
6/18
F) Embarrassing turnouts at pro-establishment rallies, themselves far and few in between. One such shindig in Noida last week lasted less than 6 hours and could only roster about 500 "farmers." And that with the entire state machinery backing them up. https://m.timesofindia.com/city/noida/noida-pro-farm-bill-outfit-members-gather-at-eway-protesting-farmers-allege-conspiracy/amp_articleshow/79926482.cms
F) Embarrassing turnouts at pro-establishment rallies, themselves far and few in between. One such shindig in Noida last week lasted less than 6 hours and could only roster about 500 "farmers." And that with the entire state machinery backing them up. https://m.timesofindia.com/city/noida/noida-pro-farm-bill-outfit-members-gather-at-eway-protesting-farmers-allege-conspiracy/amp_articleshow/79926482.cms
7/18
Promising?
Don't know. Remember it's the same country that offered this same lot a bigger mandate after misadventures like demonetization, Pulwama, GST, and a wave of communal lynchings and rapes not seen in years.
But these signs are just as unprecedented, aren't they?
Promising?
Don't know. Remember it's the same country that offered this same lot a bigger mandate after misadventures like demonetization, Pulwama, GST, and a wave of communal lynchings and rapes not seen in years.
But these signs are just as unprecedented, aren't they?
8/18
Without jinxing the developments, I feel this is about time we discussed numbers.
Lemme introduce you to the "3.5% Rule." The BBC article attached does a great job of going into the concept's nitty-gritty, so not gonna reinvent the wheel. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Without jinxing the developments, I feel this is about time we discussed numbers.
Lemme introduce you to the "3.5% Rule." The BBC article attached does a great job of going into the concept's nitty-gritty, so not gonna reinvent the wheel. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
9/18
The gist of this rule is that every mass-uprising comes with a critical mass. A State's pain threshold, if you will.
A bare-minimum number that guarantees success.
That number is 3.5% of the affected political entity's total headcount.
The gist of this rule is that every mass-uprising comes with a critical mass. A State's pain threshold, if you will.
A bare-minimum number that guarantees success.
That number is 3.5% of the affected political entity's total headcount.
10/18
Not a single mass-uprising since 1900 has failed with that number.
Not one.
That's a promise, isn't it? For India, it amounts to 30 million adults, give or take. Right now, there's more than 300k at two sites alone. Led by over 3 dozen unions. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/know-about-the-kisan-unions-leading-the-biggest-farmers-agitation-in-delhi-in-30-years-1746468-2020-12-03
Not a single mass-uprising since 1900 has failed with that number.
Not one.
That's a promise, isn't it? For India, it amounts to 30 million adults, give or take. Right now, there's more than 300k at two sites alone. Led by over 3 dozen unions. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/know-about-the-kisan-unions-leading-the-biggest-farmers-agitation-in-delhi-in-30-years-1746468-2020-12-03
11/18
This number may sound insignificant but do note a couple of things first. For one, the last time this number was beaten was over 2 generations ago.
By less then 200k.
And it worked. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/how-mahendra-singh-tikait-s-kisan-rally-resembles-1988-protest-by-bku-118100300103_1.html
This number may sound insignificant but do note a couple of things first. For one, the last time this number was beaten was over 2 generations ago.
By less then 200k.
And it worked. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/how-mahendra-singh-tikait-s-kisan-rally-resembles-1988-protest-by-bku-118100300103_1.html
12/18
Secondly, these numbers are far from stagnant. Farmers from afar continue to spill into the protests in unfathomable numbers as we speak. It's growing and over a month in, continues to endure.
Even at this point, it's spectacularly easy to underestimate the potential.
Secondly, these numbers are far from stagnant. Farmers from afar continue to spill into the protests in unfathomable numbers as we speak. It's growing and over a month in, continues to endure.
Even at this point, it's spectacularly easy to underestimate the potential.
13/18
This looks like a Sikh protest, at least to the layman. Even if that were true, Sikhs alone make up 2% of India. The threshold is 3.5.
But we know this isn't a Sikh protest. It's a farmers' protest.
India has 150 million of them.
The threshold is 30 million.
This looks like a Sikh protest, at least to the layman. Even if that were true, Sikhs alone make up 2% of India. The threshold is 3.5.
But we know this isn't a Sikh protest. It's a farmers' protest.
India has 150 million of them.
The threshold is 30 million.
14/18
But even this isn't all. At this point, there's no reason for all aggrieved to join forces into a single unrelenting juggernaut the likes of which haven't existed in modern history.
Muslims are 18% of India.
NRC is just one of the things they have issues with.
But even this isn't all. At this point, there's no reason for all aggrieved to join forces into a single unrelenting juggernaut the likes of which haven't existed in modern history.
Muslims are 18% of India.
NRC is just one of the things they have issues with.
15/18
And then there's the soldiers (an entire regiment of Sikhs), the traders, the unemployed workforce, the students, the urban poor, the dalits (an overwhelming majority of the Hindu demography) — the potential is staggering.
There's no reason for them to not coalesce.
And then there's the soldiers (an entire regiment of Sikhs), the traders, the unemployed workforce, the students, the urban poor, the dalits (an overwhelming majority of the Hindu demography) — the potential is staggering.
There's no reason for them to not coalesce.
16/18
There's no reason for the agitations to confine themselves to disparate legislations. Nothing stopping them from evolving into a single blanket call:
"Don't just rollback. Leave."
The critical mass of a comprehensive coup is closer today than ever before.
There's no reason for the agitations to confine themselves to disparate legislations. Nothing stopping them from evolving into a single blanket call:
"Don't just rollback. Leave."
The critical mass of a comprehensive coup is closer today than ever before.
17/18
Of course, all of this is more likely wishful thinking than any real and present possibility. Of course it's not easy to not crumble in front of a tyrannical will assisted by one of the largest uniformed forces on Earth.
But this is among the last few remaining chances.
Of course, all of this is more likely wishful thinking than any real and present possibility. Of course it's not easy to not crumble in front of a tyrannical will assisted by one of the largest uniformed forces on Earth.
But this is among the last few remaining chances.
18/18
Remember, even at the ballots, half the population had rejected this regime.
Remember 3.5%.
Step on the gas, India, make it count. The momentum cannot afford to relent. No despot has survived this number and this one isn't even one yet.
3.5%.
Remember, even at the ballots, half the population had rejected this regime.
Remember 3.5%.
Step on the gas, India, make it count. The momentum cannot afford to relent. No despot has survived this number and this one isn't even one yet.
3.5%.
