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Reading #WestBengalElection2021 , my reading is as follows. It would in no way be a hung verdict. The winner would get overwhelming majority for sure. Reasons are aplenty. There are past examples to believe so ! Do check this short thread. (1/n) https://twitter.com/nik_pandharikar/status/1343448473815814145
Staying in a state ruled by parties like Left or TMC and voting for opposition comes with a risk !
If these parties win, they would try their all to make life troublesome for those who voted for opposition in every possible way. (2/n)
If these parties win, they would try their all to make life troublesome for those who voted for opposition in every possible way. (2/n)
2 states which have been ruled by such parties recently are Tripura and West Bengal. Now consider Tripura, in 2018 assembly polls, the BJP after lot of hard work managed to secure 43.59% with ally IPFT winning 7.38% seats and winning 36+8=44 seats (out of 60) (2/n)
While the left front after 25 years of rule managed to get 42.22% of votes and 16 seats ! But what happened in LS 2019 polls has to be seen. In LS 2019, BJP’s voteshare rose to 49.03% with Left’s falling to 17.31%. Though UPA took 25.34% ! (3/n)
The fall in Left’s voteshare compared to LS 2014 was 47.47% and compared to VS 2018 was 24.91%.
Thus clearly , THERE WAS A SECTION OF VOTERS which wanted Left out but was FEARFUL OF VOTING AGAINST THEM due to fear of revenge of left it it returns to power. (4/n)
Thus clearly , THERE WAS A SECTION OF VOTERS which wanted Left out but was FEARFUL OF VOTING AGAINST THEM due to fear of revenge of left it it returns to power. (4/n)
Once that fear was gone , like in this case in 2018 assembly polls, these fearful voters voted for non left parties freely. Resulting in massive fall of left !
Now 1 May say that after 2018 state victory BJP had police in hand so voters were less fearful. (5/n)
Now 1 May say that after 2018 state victory BJP had police in hand so voters were less fearful. (5/n)
There are however another examples which we can have a look at, this time from West Bengal itself.
In 2009 LS polls , the seats of Left when down from 35-15 while that of TMC-Dhongress alliance went up from 6 to 26. (6/n)
In 2009 LS polls , the seats of Left when down from 35-15 while that of TMC-Dhongress alliance went up from 6 to 26. (6/n)
The vote shares consequently were 43.3% for left and 44.63% for TMC-Dhongress+.
But this election did the most important thing of putting it in psyche of West Bengal voters that LEFT can be defeated despite its goonda power. (7/n)
But this election did the most important thing of putting it in psyche of West Bengal voters that LEFT can be defeated despite its goonda power. (7/n)
Consequently when assembly elections came in 2011, people overwhelmingly voted against left despite their goonda power. TMC led alliance got 228 seats from 30 in 2006 and left was reduced from 233 seats in 2006 to 62 seats !! (8/n)
This also shows clearly that even in West Bengal there was a section of voters who did not vote for TMC-Dhongress alliance due to fear of Left. But once convinced with 2009 results that left can be voted out they took the plunge. Another such example after Tripura 2018-19. (9/n)
Now TMC itself became more like left. There was not enough change.
TMC overwhelmingly won both 2014 LS polls in West Bengal and 2016 assembly polls. But after nationwide LS win in 2014 , BJP went on to build it’s strength in West Bengal by various means. (10/n)
TMC overwhelmingly won both 2014 LS polls in West Bengal and 2016 assembly polls. But after nationwide LS win in 2014 , BJP went on to build it’s strength in West Bengal by various means. (10/n)
These including getting powerful TMC dissenters like Mukul Roy and going on to build cadre base right upto booth level. This showed results in rural local body polls but most significantly in 2019 Lok Sabha polls , with BJP’s seats rising to 18 from 2 and ... (11/n)
... voteshare rising to 40.7% , a rise of 22.76% over 2014. Even TMC actually saw a voteshare rise of 3.48% to 43.3% , but seats saw a drop of 12 from 34 to 22.
This election results were thus very important for BJP as well as West Bengal. (12/n)
This election results were thus very important for BJP as well as West Bengal. (12/n)
Simply because this 2019 LS election result in West Bengal would do the same for voters and BJP what the 2009 LS result did for voters and TMC+. GAVE THE RULING PARTY WRATH FEARING VOTERS THE COURAGE THAT THE OPPRESSIVE RULING PARTY CAN BE VOTED OUT. (13/n)
BJP on it’s part has not relaxed after 2019 victory. Rather it hs kept the momentum and now has even inducted Yuyutsus like Adhikari after inducting Vibhishans like Mukul Roy few years back. Repeated tours of top leaders whether it is Nadda or Shah or Modi only tells ... (14/n)
... voters that BJP is not taking WB for granted. Thus as 2009 LS was somewhat repeated in 2019 LS, 2011 VS would somewhat be repeated in 2021 VS , with BJP taking place of TMC. One may argue that TMC had CM face in Mamata in 2011 while BJP isn’t projecting currently,but (15/n)
...BJP is not faceless as Modi-Shah ,primarily Modi is seen as the face here. Being at centre they would also do their best to push EC for maximum Central forces. Thus I see an overwhelming majority result for winner and no hung assembly in #WestBengalElection2021 (16/n) (n/n)
