1/ I need to say this: 2020 has made me *more* optimistic and hopeful about India than ever before. There is a lot of pessimism out there probably coming from a right place.. but hear me out.

2/ We faced once in a century pandemic, an unprecedented lockdown of the whole country, a 6-month loan moratorium. In March, the probability of some sort of collapse- of health system, financial system, supply chain for essentials, factories, INR, RE : anything seemed plausible

3/ Yes, Demo was a shock and GST was disruptive. But 2020 was a tsunami in slow motion. And we came through. There is a lot and lot of misery and problem and even some chaos... but came through we did.

4/ I have no delusion that a long term real gdp growth of 9% instead of a 6% makes a huge difference and India is no closer to former. That said, one lesson from investing is that surviving the worst is the most important success factor. Democracy makes us resilient politically..

5/ and now we can feel more confident that this country with all its poverty and problems can take a gut punch and still keep moving. I think there is a lot frustration esp. because (a) the gap with China is so large and maybe widening, (b) its easy to forget the arc of progress

6/ I myself grew up in a town with no electricity for half a day. Now even villages are better off. I am not arguing that all is well or be complacent. We have many many problems but the progress also has been phenomenal and 2020 demonstrated that we are resilient.

7/ I will end with a couple of points on how extraordinary India's strengths are from my vantage point as an EM investor. Again China is tough to beat but India's size bestow her with incredible strengths compared to many nations

8/ First: talent. Sundar or Satya are incredible but just two among many India has produced (even 5% of Indians is a lot of very sharp people). The teams I get to meet and work with are truly inspirational. India is blessed. In a knowledge economy, this will compound with time.

9/ Second, depth of markets. For its gdp/capita, India is blessed with the depth in its real economy and its capital markets. The variety of asset classes and businesses in India is off the charts.(For why this underwrites long term growth.. check out https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/ )

10/ Third, size allows us to negotiate/attract FDI first for domestic market (then eventually exports) - something finally getting momentum with PLI and others.

11/ Size (talent, deep markets) along with democratic, tolerant, English speaking people is why international capital loves India. I used to fret a lot about India's high and sustained CAD (opposite of Asian miracle playbook) but our strengths place us well to solve it.

12/ In the middle of the worst global crisis in a while, the poor India not only has been resilient but has been underwriting for the world from vaccine mfr (Serum) to meds (HCQ & others), and even PPE and I am guessing digital transition (IT services).

13/ Some will not like a hopeful message in the midst of gloom. Many stories are tragic. Worries are justifiable - pollution, regulatory cholesterol, lack of quality edu and jobs and what not.

But I would not count us out. Not after what we were able to withstand in 2020 /end