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Scientific populism is new religion.
There is no god but God and Neil Ferguson is his prophet.
Under the banner of heaven, Pueyo brought Ferguson to the masses, forging new markets.
1/x
There is no god but God and Neil Ferguson is his prophet.
Under the banner of heaven, Pueyo brought Ferguson to the masses, forging new markets.
1/x
Inspired by charts and slogans, many people followed in Pueyo’s footsteps.
An acolyte named Marc Bevand was born.
A puny Pueyo, as it were.
Like his exemplars, Bevand transmuted the daily bread of uncertainty into the radiant body of everlasting presumption.
2/x
An acolyte named Marc Bevand was born.
A puny Pueyo, as it were.
Like his exemplars, Bevand transmuted the daily bread of uncertainty into the radiant body of everlasting presumption.
2/x
In November, Bevand predicted Sweden would have a 7-day rolling average of 100-200 deaths per day by Christmas.
Realizing the range was too large to be meaningful, Bevand wisely committed to the lower end of his prediction.
3/x
Realizing the range was too large to be meaningful, Bevand wisely committed to the lower end of his prediction.
3/x
On November 18, he wagered $100 USD that Sweden would show a 7-day rolling average > 100 deaths per day by 12/24.
4/x
4/x
On November 20, Bevand confidently claimed, “It’s now very obvious Sweden will have well over 100 COVID deaths per day before Christmas, making their second wave worse than their 1st one.”
5/x
5/x
Later, Bevand included a smiling emoji to express his chutzpah and self-assurance.
How did his prediction fair?
Well, you can see for yourself.
6/x
How did his prediction fair?
Well, you can see for yourself.
6/x
I don’t know why Bevand’s model failed.
But if you’re like me and find focused protection (FP) morally and intellectually appealing, one reason suggests itself.
FP doesn’t promise complete eradication or sterilizing immunity or zeroCOVID.
7/x
But if you’re like me and find focused protection (FP) morally and intellectually appealing, one reason suggests itself.
FP doesn’t promise complete eradication or sterilizing immunity or zeroCOVID.
7/x
It promises qualitatively stronger immune responses and thus less death and disease than would otherwise be the case if you didn’t build biological immunity.
8/x
8/x
And that’s precisely what FP is delivering in Sweden, as the European Union, the US, and California in particular get hammered by the balloon payment come due on earlier lockdowns/immunity deficits.
9/x
9/x
