Every Sunday I upload charts for the age breakdown of covid in Rep of Ireland.
Unfortunately, the data today isn't very complete this week, but I'll go ahead anyway with the figures up to 22nd Dec.
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The datafile by the HSE covers the period up to 22nd Dec, but as we know, the numbers have increased dramatically since then. If you've just been watching the numbers on the news reports, you might not be aware of just how bad things have become.
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So first, let's have a quick glance at what's going on with the testing. The image below shows the positive swabs (red) and reported cases (blue). The gap between the two lines since 15 Dec are the cases that have yet to be reported - the reporting backlog.
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So as can be seen there's a backlog of nearly 2000 cases in the reporting.
Also, the graph below shows the number of swabs carried out. Tends to vary a bit with number of cases, due to the close contacts and community spread but it's generally around 100k tests per week.
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That graph shows clearly that something unusual had been happening since 24 Dec. Testing is down dramatically. The likely reason is people who should be getting tested now are waiting until after Christmas to get tested.
This gives us another backlog, the testing backlog.
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The positivity rate for tests is typically reported as 7 day average (just over 6%).
However, the daily value is actually over 10% and rising. Think about that for a sec. Many people who should be tested (10% of them) are right now spreading the virus to family and friends.
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@andrewflood has a very good analysis on these backlogs and it is well worth a read:
https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1343274492215357443?s=19
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Anyway, setting aside all these factors, here's a quick rundown on the numbers up to 22nd Dec. As always, there are links to the full set of charts, data for and references in the last tweet.
Overall, numbers are of course up.
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The main things I noticed are that the hospitalizations have increased very rapidly. There are increases across all age demographics but particularly noticeable in a couple of them.
The hospitalizations are highest in the 65+ group:
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Surprisingly, the 15-24 group are showing a very steep increase in hospitalizations which contrasts with the level of cases in that group. Might it be due to the new strain? Wouldn't expect it to be but it's worth keeping an eye on when we get more data next week.
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The 25-34 age group, by contrast, has increasing cases but without the high increase in hospitalizations.
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As noticed last week, all age groups have increasing case numbers but particularly those over 15yo are showing the most dramatic increases. This is up to 22 Dec, so schools were still on and the older groups would have been shopping, which seems a likely cause.
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Finally, an update on the changes since September school return. While the older groups are likely a major driver of case numbers this month, the two under 15 year old groups are still showing the highest proportional increase (8.5% and 9.9% increase from 15-22 Dec).
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And those links to the files:

PDF of charts:
https://mega.nz/file/bE4zzA7S#NaxI5bNtUoMEB4gFtP0C2RuE2rGv0iqFVLtCvmsrqeA

Excel file:
https://mega.nz/file/idgTka4b#xCPOKzN8yl161fB_lVqoZ54EFVFYIVYLgiuVR-gYwSY

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