Little reminderon the holiday effect in COVID data.

Major holidays have had significant effects on reported COVID data this year. Below you can see how COVID cases have responded to holidays with sharp declines in almost every instance. 1/

So why is that? A myriad of reasons. Some state don't report anything on a holiday, as their staff is given a well-deserved day off. People may be less likely to get a test on a holiday. Some states report a fraction of their known cases...it's messy. 2/

This reporting effect has dramatic impacts on known deaths as well. Given the extended lag between a COVID death and the public recognition of said death (anywhere from 7 days to 3 weeks), this will be a strange few weeks with both Xmas and NYE lag coming into play. 3/

Hospitalizations, while much more "real-time" and less impacted by reporting issues, are not perfect. Some states will not report a currently hospitalized number over a holiday. Still, this is the best metric to follow over the coming weeks. 4/

Those death lags discussed above will have something to say about the overall death rates as we round out the year.

But as it stands, New Jersey alone has seen 2 in every 1,000 people dying from COVID-19. 8 states are above 1.5 per 1,000, another 10 above 1 per 1,000. /end