$OZON is the leading eCommerce player in a large, underpenetrated market
OZON has achieved a strong acceleration in growth over recent years
eCommerce penetration in Russia is less than half of
global average levels
We expect it to gradually catch up, reaching c.17% by 2025E
The Russian eCommerce market is still very fragmented eCommerce share (% of total) by company in terms of GMV, 2019 and 1H20
With the top-3 players accounting for only 17% of the
market
Expect total OZON GMV to grow at a 56% CAGR (2020-25E)
Capturing significant share of eCommerce growth in Russia
Expect OZON’s EBITDA margin to turn positive in 2023 and reach 3.6% by 2025
We value OZON on 1.3x 2021E peers’ EV/GMV. We use 1.3x peer median and apply it to OZON’s 2022E GMV
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