The Review: GW 15 – A thread

Hi everyone, in the absence of The FPL Wire guys, @zophar666, @lateriser12 and “The Review” by @BigManBakar, welcome to a new edition of “The Review”.

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout)

Before beginning, I’d like to say that it is not my desire to replace or better anyone so please don’t shoot me for doing this…

… I thought I’d give it a shot to look back on the football played this weekend considering the short turnaround and the next GW being on the doorstep. All I want is to try and fill the void this week as much as I possibly can.

1. What is going on with Chelsea’s defence?

GW 1-11 goal attempts (in the box) conceded per game: 9.45 (5.09)
GW 12-15 goal attempts (in the box) conceded per game: 10.5 (8.0)

What’s not so obvious is that Chelsea concede a shot more per game. However, what is definitely…

… more obvious is that Chelsea concede three shots in the box more per game. They seem to be allowing the opposition to play through them more often rather than letting the opposition having a go from distance…

… With games against good attacking sides and a blank coming up, I’m not sure you should be looking at bringing James and/or Chilwell straight back in.

2. What is going on with Fulham’s defence?

GW 1-11 goal attempts (in the box) conceded per game: 12.64 (8.64)
GW 12-15 goal attempts (in the box) conceded per game: 9.25 (4.75)
GW 1-11 big chances conceded per game: 2.55
GW 12-15 big chances conceded per game: 1.25

… Hats off to Scott Parker. He has made Fulham tighter in defence with a change of system and almost halved their total of shots in the box conceded per game. Big chances conceded gone down to almost one as well. So what of their defensive options going forward?...

… Let’s take a deeper look at left wing-back £4.4m Robinson:

GW 4-11 mins per big chance created: 720
GW 12-15 mins per big chance created: 180
GW 4-11 mins per chance created: 65.45
GW 12-15 mins per chance created: 60

… Robinson seems to be playing higher up the pitch thanks to their new system and has created six chances over the past four GWs. Therefore Robinson stands third for chances created…

… and first for big chances created amongst defenders starting the season at £4.5m over the past four GWs. When you’re looking at rotating defenders, he’s definitely worth a shout.

3. Operation Target Crystal Palace?

GW 1-11 goal attempts in the box conceded per game: 8.09
GW 12-15 goal attempts in the box conceded per game: 10.25
GW 1-11 big chances conceded per game: 1.91
GW 12-15 big chances conceded per game: 3.75…

… GW 1-11 mins per xG conceded: 69.8
GW 12-15 mins per xG conceded: 45

Palace are falling apart. Not only have they conceded over two shots in the box more per game, but those shots are also quality chances. Considering the injury problems Hodgson has…

… it will be hard for him to improve his side at the back. With Leicester at home up next and Vardy scoring 9 of his 11 goals away from home this season, the 33-year-old Englishman could have a field day. Besides, Palace are away to Arsenal in the BGW and…

… travel to City in the DGW. Those on a FH 18 should consider an attacking Arsenal asset but should also be aware that selling and/or not owning a City asset for a single in the DGW could massively backfire.

4.Was this the start of a turnaround for Arsenal?

After only one win and two draws in their last 10 league outings Arsenal are desperate for points trying to avoid a relegation battle. And they finally got three of those after a 3-1 victory over Chelsea in which they were…

… absolutely at it from an attacking point of view. Arsenal had 15 goal attempts, of which 12 were from inside the box and 7 were on target. They had a total of three big chances and created a chance every 6.4 mins…

… In previous league games Arsenal have taken 10.4 shots per game, of which 6.9 were from inside the box and only 3.2 were on target. Furthermore, they only had 1.5 big chances per game and created a chance every 9.1 mins. Considering they played Chelsea, could this be their…

… season’s turnaround? Their next four fixtures (bha, wba, CRY, NEW) couldn’t have been any better so if Arteta can keep them playing like this, cheap options like Saka (£5.1m) and Martinelli (£4.9m) could return good points and might be worth investing in for a possible BB 19.

5. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Ollie Watkins – keep or sell with the blanks/doubles coming up?

Calvert-Lewin:
GW 1-11 goal attempts per game: 3.27
GW 12-15 goal attempts per game: 1.75
GW 1-11 big chances per game: 1.27
GW 12-15 big chances per game: 0.75…

… GW 1-11 mins per xG: 117
GW 12-15 mins per xG: 250.3

There is a definite downturn in numbers DCL is posting when Digne, Rodríguez and Richarlison aren’t on the pitch. Without these three players Calvert-Lewin doesn’t get the chances…

… he got during the first third of the season. Digne is expected to be injured for at least one more month, whilst Rodríguez is as doubtful as always. With City and a couple of tricky fixtures up next, including a single in the DGW, it might be worth investing elsewhere…

… especially for those on a FH 18. There are 12 forwards who have had more shots/chances over the past four GWs than DCL. A point of note, however, if you own DCL since early in the season you have a bit of value that you will lose in case you get rid of him…

… Keep that in mind, because you need to pay a bigger price if you want him back soon.

Watkins:
GW 2-9 goal attempts (in the box) per game: 2.25 (2.25)
GW 10-15 goal attempts (in the box) per game: 4.4 (4.2)
GW 2-9 big chances per game: 1.1
GW 10-15 big chances per game: 1…

… GW 2-9 mins per xG: 165.9
GW 10-15 mins per xG: 136.8

Despite scoring six goals in the first seven league games and not scoring a single goal in his last six outings, Watkins is now producing better underlying stats than he did at the start of the season…

… Even being off penalties, at a price tag of £6.1m Watkins should be extremely good value for the rest of the season. His next four fixtures however are against the better sides which is probably why he is owned by only 7.4% still…

… After DGW 19 Watkins should be one of the best forward picks of the game. Statistically. Are there any other notable forward picks in the same price bracket as Watkins? Let’s take a look at five of them…

Wood vs Adams vs Rodrigo vs Welbeck vs Benteke
GW 11-15 goal attempts per 90: 2.1 vs 1.2 vs 2.5 vs 1.6 vs 4.1
GW 11-15 big chances per 90: 1.2 vs 0.6 vs 0.3 vs 0.8 vs 0.5

Benteke has taken the most shots by far though those haven’t been quality attempts…

…Burnley seem to supply Wood with the best chances and Welbeck looks a better bet than Adams on paper. Brighton’s fixtures aren’t exactly enticing though so for me he’d be the last pick of the bunch. I quite like Benteke from GW 20 moving forward!

6. Martínez finally showing why he is the best original £4.5m GK pick?

Goal attempts conceded per game in the box vs outside vs percentage outside:
Villa/Martínez (£4.9m): 7 vs 4.1 vs 36.8%
Soton/McCarthy (£4.7m): 7.1 vs 2.8 vs 28.2%
Leeds/Meslier (£4.6m): 10.6 vs 4.6 vs 30.3%..

…Fulham/Aréola (£4.5m): 8.1 vs 4.4 vs 35.2%
WBA/Johnstone (£4.5m): 10.7 vs 5.4 vs 33.3%
Brighton/Sánchez (£4.5m): 5.4 vs 3.1 vs 36%...

…Not only does Martínez look like the best shot stopper of these teams/goalkeepers, Villa have also been conceding the highest percentage of shots from outside the box. That logically is the easiest way to rack up saves and…

… why Martínez has been doing very well both on the pitch as in FPL terms lately. Although Aréola is worth a mention since Fulham have conceded only 9.25 shots per game over the last four GWs of which 48.6% from outside the box!

7. Which premiums to own?

All this discussion about which premiums you should own are dependent on which chip strategy you will be following and how your current team structure looks like. I’d like to rephrase @BigManBakar in his review from last GW…

… “All this discussion is purely team specific, remember there is no hard and fast rule for success in chip strategy! I can only advise on a macro level basis hence if you feel as if any other strategy suits your team better, you should opt for that…

… Remember there is always more than one way to skin a cat!” These lines also apply to which premiums are best to own for certain periods/fixture-runs of the game. Now, let’s have a look at the underlying stats…

… of De Bruyne, Fernandes, Son, Rashford, Kane and Vardy over the last four GWs. I assume you will want to have Salah, which is why I’m excluding him from this discussion. (Spurs’ numbers against Wolves couldn’t be included due to the short turnaround)…

… De Bruyne vs Sterling vs Fernandes vs Son vs Rashford vs Kane vs Vardy
Mins per shot inside the box: 72 vs 60 vs 47.3 vs 66.8 vs 42.6 vs 45 vs 23.9
Mins per big chance: 180 vs 120 vs 110.3 vs 133.5 vs 85.3 vs 270 vs 89.5…

… Mins per big chance created: 90 vs 120 vs 165.5 vs 133.5 vs x vs x vs x

It seems pretty clear that both the United assets along with Vardy have the better underlying stats. The trio also have a DGW whilst the other four don’t and play in the blank. KDB really…

… seems expendable having had only a big chance per two games and creating only one per game, a stat he used to excel. City’s fixtures turn for the better again after the DGW so KDB and Sterling could come back in the fold at that time. Both Fernandes and Rashford have been…

… producing better numbers than Son. However, I wouldn’t like to bet against the Spurs boys in their next two games. Fulham have shown they can keep it tight, but I’m not sure they will be capable of doing the same against Spurs. A fixture against Leeds follows after and…

… both Son and Kane could go rampant if Leeds allow as many chances as they have been doing these past couple of weeks. Based on the stats a double-up on United seems more sensible than a double-up on Spurs, though I’m not sure many would dare to go there!...

… Having to choose between Kane and Vardy doesn’t look as much as a coin flip as I thought it would be. Vardy has the better numbers and like Kane has two excellent fixtures coming up. If you’re on a FH 18 I think Vardy edges it for me due to an extra fixture in the DGW and…

… better fixtures coming out of the DGW. Although if you’re not on a double-up on Spurs attackers for their home game against Leeds, you could very well lose ground to a big percentage of the playing field. Son is owned by 62% and Kane by 41.9%...

… which are absolutely crazy numbers.

An appealing left-field pick is Martial. At only £8.7m he has been producing better numbers than all these premium picks over the last four GWs:

Mins per shot inside the box: 30
Mins per big chance: 67.5
Mins per big chance created: 67.5…

… In addition to that, a little research showed that he started every league game during the congested period last season. However, Cavani is looming and having a great impact as well whenever he’s playing so he could replace Martial at anytime.

I’d like to finish by saying that it has probably been obvious that I’m going to use the FH in GW 18 myself. Some comments could have been a bit subjective; the hard numbers can’t be ignored though!

I wish everyone happy holidays and a big thank you for going through this thread