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Why are Militants Attacking in #Balochistan? | THREAD
1: The numerical strength of active militants operating in Balochistan is believed to be in 100s, not even in thousands.
2: Militants are divided along tribal lines.
* BRA: Raija Bugti tribe
* BLA: K.B Marri tribe
1: The numerical strength of active militants operating in Balochistan is believed to be in 100s, not even in thousands.
2: Militants are divided along tribal lines.
* BRA: Raija Bugti tribe
* BLA: K.B Marri tribe
* Lashkar e Balochistan: Brother of Akhtar Mengal.
* UBA: Marri
* BLF: Recruits across tribes, mostly communists.
3: India recently created BRAS to stem tribal infighting.
4: Few years ago, Militancy was all but dead because of an effective political and COIN strategy.
* UBA: Marri
* BLF: Recruits across tribes, mostly communists.
3: India recently created BRAS to stem tribal infighting.
4: Few years ago, Militancy was all but dead because of an effective political and COIN strategy.
5: In the recent years, the State has adopted a more soft policy, mostly focused on socio economic development which is an important COIN element.
6: This policy however had scaled back the COIN ops on the ground.
7: The close air support was scaled back.
6: This policy however had scaled back the COIN ops on the ground.
7: The close air support was scaled back.
8: Retaliation capacity was reduced under an assumption that militants will reciprocate and a political solution will permanently end the fighting, a sound strategy but not a practical one.
9: Militant groups 1took the Strategic patience policy as a weakness.
9: Militant groups 1took the Strategic patience policy as a weakness.
10: It gave the militants the opportunity to regroup, re arm, re supply and recruit and strengthen their foothold in Afghanistan.
11: They took it upon themselves to intensify attacks, including attacks on Chinese citizens and installations to subvert CPEC.1
11: They took it upon themselves to intensify attacks, including attacks on Chinese citizens and installations to subvert CPEC.1
12: The policy became so relaxed that it took a major terrorist attack on the Chinese Consulate General for the state to take decisive counter measures that resulted in the killing of BLA commander Aslam Achu in Afghanistan.
13: Militants continued to attack LEA convoys.
13: Militants continued to attack LEA convoys.
14: OGDCL, Economic Targets, PC Gwadar are among the targets.
15: Over 100 troops are believed to have either been martyred or severely injured with long term health consequences by IED attacks, Sniping and ambushes during past 2 years, including officers.
15: Over 100 troops are believed to have either been martyred or severely injured with long term health consequences by IED attacks, Sniping and ambushes during past 2 years, including officers.
16: The militants have gotten more bold, as attacks are now being carried out in broad daylight and they are attacking static, well protected outposts like in #Harnai. But why?
17: Because the militants are convinced that there will be NO RESPONSE by LEAS due to state policy.
17: Because the militants are convinced that there will be NO RESPONSE by LEAS due to state policy.
18: So basically the state policy to seek a political solution to militancy has failed, because militants are making a decent living by killing our troops and getting paid for every casualty by India as exposed in the dossier shared by @OfficialDGISPR.
19: Militants are now building safe heavens inside Balochistan, a far cry from just a few years ago when all of their camps had been neutralised and their spheres of influence diminished.
20: So basically, the State policy is to blame for the current situation. Continued...
20: So basically, the State policy is to blame for the current situation. Continued...
What's needed is a dynamic policy that continues the socio economic development in Balochistan to address poverty, unemployment and other elements that create militancy, but at the same time, this policy must include a force element. Militants should be actively engaged..
They should be decisively defeated on the ground, their human resources should be kept under break neck pressure, supply lines must be broken and their political, agitator communist allies like AWP and others should be taken care of on a political front.
Militant safe heavens in Afghanistan should be brought under pressure and measures should be taken to end the double dealing culture of feudal sardars. They should either be on the side of development or be considered combatants.
We know this policy has failed....
We know this policy has failed....
It is now time for the Govt and Military to diversify its policy that includes putting and end to the militancy like it was done with TTP. This is how peace and security will be ensured in Balochistan, to create conditions for economic growth and a prosperous future.
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Sorry for the typos*
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