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As many others I'm still working through the detail of the agreement & all the annexes. But some initial thoughts based on my first read & associated documents. My overriding feeling is that it is pretty much exactly as expected in many parts & largely a balanced deal. 1/
Overall it is the thin deal I expected. The main thing it provides for is zero tariff zero quota. This is important but only a small part of the changes/costs businesses face as a result of the UK leaving the EU. This is largely because it became a pretty defensive negotiation 2/
Both sides became focused on defending their key interests rather than on their offensive asks. The UK around limiting the obligations to which it signs up, the EU by ensuring integrity of the single market. I think both have largely achieved their defensive aims 3/
Both sides have made compromises to get the deal done, as you would expect. But it doesn't feel to me as if there are particular parts where either side feels very uncomfortable with the agreement it has struck (which hasn't always been true in the Brexit negotiations) 4/
I don't agree with those who suggest the UK has caved in a large number of areas to the EU. Take the level playing field. Yes it is more than the UK originally wanted but it is also much less then the EU wanted, even until recently. 5/
Ultimately, LPF & governance provisions look pretty balanced to me, if incredibly complicated. I think the mechanisms established are fair. The biggest question for me is whether they can work in practice or if the process is too complex/risks descending to tit for tat 6/
There are some minor positive surprises. I think road haulage agreement is better than expected & will avoid what could have been even further disruption to supply chains. Similarly aviation is looks marginally better though the two sides were never that far apart here 7/
The bridging agreement on data is also very welcome, though the adequacy decision itself remains important. There are also marginal positives in rules of origin (phase in especially), customs facilitation (mutual rec of AEOs) & home title recognition for lawyers 8/
There are of course areas which continue to frustrate me, such as SPS. It seems crazy the two sides didn't do more here. But then the UK didn't ask & the EU has shown how implacable it is in this area (not least in talks of implementation of NI protocol). 9/
I won't engage in who won or lost. That is a silly debate. You'd expect both sides to proclaim wins post such a negotiation. But there are clear compromises from both sides compared to their opening positions. 10/
Your view of whether this is a good deal depends on your view of this whole process. There is no objective metric. The best I can say is that, on my assessment both sides have managed to achieve the core aims they set out to 11/ ENDS [Further threads on specific issues to follow]
