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A useful analogy to what I suspect the switch to EVs will be like is the switch from CRT to LCD television panels. CRTs started losing market share slowly, then all at once. 85% of the market in 2003, 50% in 2008, Sales of new CRTs were basically extinct in North America by 2012. https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1343234190351998976
there's a chicken or the egg aspect to this but I don't think it'll turn out to be a big deal. The economics of refueling stations are simple once enough people have EVs to make them widely used https://twitter.com/richmintz/status/1343241332572229639
if the current generation of EVs are LCDs, I suspect that the upcoming generation of vehicles using solid state batteries will be the LEDs that finally blows all the old tech into obsolescence https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2020/Toyota-s-game-changing-solid-state-battery-en-route-for-2021-debut
also makes sense https://twitter.com/Twonius/status/1343246665214349312
i think the reason TVs strikes me as a better analogy is that the scale of production necessary makes ICE vehicles basically going extinct like CRTs way more likely than them sticking around for niche uses like photographic film still has https://twitter.com/SCloudSmith/status/1343255224819978240
anyway I'll lay down a marker right now and say that I expect 50% of new light vehicle sales in Europe+North America+Japan to be full EVs of some kind (not hybrids) by 2025 and 80% by 2028.
with a lag in developing markets, the same way CRTs stuck around in Latin America and India longer than they did in the USA and with China possibly going the other way and making the switch faster than the first world markets do.
I'm just some guy on the internet, not an expert on the car industry or consumer preferences or the underlying technology or whatever so my prediction probably shouldn't be worth much to you! But there it is.
absolutely. and for all the talk about (so far) vaporware AV tech inevitably putting truckers out of work, not a lot of awareness floating around today that EV switchover is going to crater employment of car mechanics https://twitter.com/tomkarlo/status/1343257279110459393
That's true but I think that actually indicates a faster turnover. Once it's clear that the market for used ICE cars won't be robust in 5+ years, buyers will look ahead and avoid them, and leases and loans will be harder to finance https://twitter.com/Too_Big_To_Fail/status/1343259699941158913
Interesting counterpoint https://twitter.com/raywert/status/1343285955969634307?s=19
