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1/please show me market that has more pent up demand than travel and social gathering? Timing tough but outcome=certain=massive pent up demand building. THEY will say these stocks mostly reflect demand coming re/valuations. BUT why is it ok that growth cos trade 30-200x revenue
2/Why shouldn’t the best positioned recovery stocks that are sure to see historic sales growth, revpar, customer engagement have a period where the valuation expands the same way as all these tech growth stocks?Most of these cos will have much better growth and comps vs most tech
3/so we have everyone leaning into absurdly valued tech with ungodly valuations and super steep comps at a time when we can actually see where billions of people are chomping at the bit to spend their money in a smaller group of businesses that are highly recognizable
4/trade much lower volume on a daily basis and have never before experienced the epic trading volume they WILL experience. It’s hard to find an industry group that will eventually see such historic interest and volume. This rubber band is stretched as far as it goes and
5/the covid fatigue is real and extreme. IMO there’s at least a 1year mean reversion trade where estimates are radically too low, growth will be super high, proving power will be high, available labor is high.
6/the bear case is 1)stocks are priced for a recovery already but demand hasn’t arrived yet 2)all these cos were forced to add ton of debt that will act like an anchor and keep them from thriving. All of these are fair and logical.
7/ Important-if we feel confident that a demand Renaissance is coming, pricing will be epic given demand, supply will be constrained,stocks could be a powder-keg, then we should also expect as the epic volume comes, stocks respond positively=allows them to do multiple secondaries
8/so the epic demand and ability to sell shares higher into the peak of demand and stock price SHOULD allow these cos to pay down the debt they were forced to raise via Covid.Once this rubber band snaps back in positive direction the trade is done and comps get impossible to beat
9/pls tell me where this analysis is flawed and/or what other industries have a flood of demand that’s not built into estimates already with absurd valuations already and comps that are in the stratosphere. I welcome the bear case or help me poke holes
10/ What do we touch from trip planning to airport to travel to lodging to fun while at destination to home? Apparel,ride share, airlines, lodging, food-Booz,payments $abnb $mar $expe $hlt $h $luv $dal $sav $alk $shak $dri $uber $lyft $cpri $tpr $stz $bud $lyv $jwn $ma $v $axp
11/ $BKNG $YELP $TRIP $ALGT $UAL $LVMUY $HESAY $PPRUY $AEO $ANF The whole chain of planning 4 travel, purchasing items we need, traveling, spending while we travel, getting to/from airport-setting up for an epic mean reversion & most ARENT allocated yet for the opportunity coming
12/there are some very smart successful investors building positions in this theme but largely it’s one not even talked about or allocated for. I’ve looked into holdings for over 100 top performing active funds and few of any positions in this theme so NOT a crowded trade
13/so there’s massive potential fuel to this theme and more buyers than sellers is what makes a stock go up, all the other stuff is just a narrative @GavinSBaker @biotequity @altcap at Altimeter had massive exposure but when the gates open holy cow for travel and the stocks
