Read on Twitter
THREAD: I looked at 14mil tweets covering a variety of social and political issues over the past year to get a picture of how the overall #SouthAfrica political landscape has changed in 2020 http://www.superlinear.co.za/2020-in-review-the-year-crude-populism-and-polarisation-took-hold/
From COVID-19 to Put South Africans First (PSAF) xenophobia, here's what the overall 'map' of South African politics looks like with the main groups involved.
The largest community and influencers are @zwelimkhize and govt health accounts together with the news media. It seems that govt has succeeded in leading a credible response to the pandemic so far. They deserve respect for this. Many other countries have failed to do this.
However, things are far from rosy. 2020 has been an extraordinary year and many shifts have occurred in our political landscape. Probably the most concerning shift is an increase in polarisation between groups.
Worryingly, we see the displacement of the media from the centre of our conversations by more strident voices. Our central media has always been a strength. We might interpret them differently but we all start with the same 'facts' unlike highly divided societies like the USA.
So, whose been doing the shouting that's displaced the media and is hastening our polarisation? Three groups: a converged EFF & RET community, the white body politic and the PSAF movement. Each is shouting in its own echo chamber and fragmenting our combined national narrative.
For the first time in my data, the EFF and RET groups are in the same community, speaking to the same audience. The escalation in racial antagonism at Senekal and Brackenfell seems to have merged these radical communities together.
Even as this is happening though, the PSAF movement in pink (and to some extent, Herman Mashaba's ActionSA and Mzwanale Manyi's ATM) has come from behind to gazump the race politics of the EFF and RET by tapping into a more primal political lever: xenophobia.
[Note that artist Ntsiki Mazwai is a strong critic of PSAF (e.g. https://twitter.com/ntsikimazwai/status/1314943855037427715) but her strident BC tone is very popular amongst the audience she shares with PSAF]
One has to wonder what the role is of RET-linked orgs such as the ATM & the MKMVA (if any) in pushing the nationalist, xenophobic PSAF movement forward? Are they cynical politicians willing to use any political lever to gain momentum, regardless of the outcome for our society?
With the convergence of black populism around race antagonism & xenophobia, many white SAfns have receded into their own Twitter laagers, finding comfort in MAGA-style narratives imported from the US that cast them as victims, rather than co-creators, of a new South Africa.
Then, to set the scene, the South African white body politic is possibly the most ideologically diverse community on South African Twitter. It has many distinct sub-communities that run the gamut from far left liberals to far right conservatives, and everything in between.
However, many white South Africans are being cleaved away from the country's main discussions thru the injection of MAGA-style narratives and techniques, including the establishment of a parallel media ecosystem built around alternative news sources and "political commentators".
An Alt-Right/MAGA USA community sits like a cancerous growth on the white body politic. Its members are as likely to be South African as American, and it pushes issues such as an absolute veneration for Donald Trump, white genocide, QAnon and other popular MAGA talking points.
Essentially, the South African white body politic is being attenuated by the colonisation of Western political ideas that facilitate polarisation through the creation of insular echo chambers.
This all begs the question: is the increasing polarisation of our society an inevitable consequence of any human society or is it being artificially encouraged by vested interests, implying that it is something that we can counteract and mitigate?
The EFF have no qualms in pushing spurious narratives (e.g. here and here), although there is no evidence that they actively employ disinformation techniques on social media. For example: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-12-21-manuel-v-malema-defamation-law-in-the-supreme-court-of-appeal/ and http://www.superlinear.co.za/quantifying-the-spread-of-eff-ret-disinformation/
The RET faction has a history of benefitting from bots and sockpuppets pushing their narratives. If it wasn't for the Gupta media empire, Bell Pottinger and key RET players, this community probably wouldn't exist on Twitter today. http://www.superlinear.co.za/running-interference-the-fake-white-monopoly-capital-propaganda-community-on-twitter/
In addition, RET-aligned and Independent Media-linked, Ayo Technologies, has also benefitted from sockpuppet accounts in the past. http://www.superlinear.co.za/the-curious-case-of-the-short-lived-ayobots/
Then, some have also claimed that the PSAF movement is being amplified through inorganic means and we've just discussed the movement's RET links. https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/co-ordinated-attempt-to-manipulate-xenophobia-centered-conversations-on-sa-social-media-cabc-report-shows-20200824
Finally, my past research has shown that the most suspicious behaviour on South African Twitter occurs at the interface between local white conservative and international MAGA conversations. http://www.superlinear.co.za/political-interference-in-south-african-politics-on-twitter/
So, it looks like we're being buffeted from all sides. Aside from the Ramaphosa govt being able to, more or less, hold the line so far in this time of COVID-19, the news isn't good. We are experiencing increased polarisation that is threatening to undermine our social fabric.
Next time an article or post makes you frustrated, angry or afraid, maybe don’t reshare it or post that angry response. Instead, take a deep breath, step back from the screen. Rather give your online energy to the things that help shape the South Africa we all want to live in.
Some Xmas reading cc @ferialhaffajee @errolbsk @goolammv @SongezoZibi @PaulivW @Sisonkemsimang @AdHabb @karynmaughan @RaymondSuttner @RyanCoetzee @afairweather @maggsnaidu @Eusebius @zilevandamme @pierredevos @maxdupreez @thulimadonsela3 @plmyburgh
Some reading on the SA political landscape @geoffreyyork @carienduplessis @AdriaanBasson @CoruscaKhaya @NickolausBauer @Bruceps @Poplak @Magda_Wierzycka @OUTASA @wayneduv @AndiMakinana @awildknight @jean_leroux @Arfness @MandyWiener @tumisole @MmusiMaimane
Tagging in the correct Minister @DrZweliMkhize
