1-pager on a bank I like. Not exciting & too much jargon. More hoping it helps people think about how to evaluate a bank, beyond simple metrics (P/E, P/B). If you care to hear my bank thesis, more below 👇
Have followed banks for a long time but only invested in them in 2020. Banking is a simple-looking, profitable-looking, biz that few get right. Think casinos. They are mostly good for parking huge sums of capital at OK rates of return or expressing an economic/rate view/trade.
My banking thesis resembles my retail thesis: better be big & well resourced like WMT/TGT (JPM/BAC) or hyper-locally focused & niche like SNBR/SPWH/TSCO (community banks). Profit agnostic fintechs will eat away at deposit bases & higher ROE biz lines over the next decade.
If you can find/buy community banks with a strong credit culture (past results are indicator of future results), hyper focused on smaller communities or niche loan products, with sticky/cheap deposit base, and large insider holders, you are likely to do OK.
Many banks getting lazy on rising rate possibilities. Smaller the bank, more fixed rate loans. Some of these guys have securities books 15yrs+ from maturity and loan books that reprice 10yrs+. If they managed credit, they've killed it. But, you're playing w fire, there, IMO.
Community banks had a life saving event during COVID when they kicked the money centers' ass in getting PPP loans out. This will do them a huge favor w regulators, IMO, for years to come & solidified their reason to exist.
Some are "renting" their charter out to fintechs, serving as the backend to the user interface. Investors have rallied those institutions. My view is LT profit in these arrangements will prove transitory & banks resorting to this are tacitly admitting they have no real business.
I look to banks with 100% core deposits, that pay absolutely nothing on those deposits, as indication of a customer base that is EXTREMELY unlikely to be lured away by fintech, higher rates, or anything else. Then make sure those deposits are being lent wisely.
As a last check, I put much weight in insider purchase activity throughout COVID. A banker that didn't buy his own stock in March or April (OR is not already hugely insider owned), is telling you everything you need to know.
I no longer find bank valuations attractive. Of big banks, I like $USB. Still seems cheap. Appears you must now pay USB multiples for the quality community banks. That doesn't make much sense.
Lastly, feeding these positions with money usually earmarked for high yield. Aiming for 8-9% on cost, which I realize is boring stuff. Gotta pick your spots w banks & they're not a get rich quick scheme.
You can follow @SirBaby6.
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