Read on Twitter
So I've come back from my Twitter break to address this 
In England and Wales ALONE there have been over 7,400 COVID deaths in the under 65s, and nearly 8,600 EXCESS deaths compared to the 5 year average. /1 https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1342780150358962176
In England and Wales ALONE there have been over 7,400 COVID deaths in the under 65s, and nearly 8,600 EXCESS deaths compared to the 5 year average. /1 https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1342780150358962176
The 'pre-existing' conditions category is very very broad, and covers:
1) Any mental health diagnosis
2) A lot of common conditions that can range from trivial to severely life-limiting
3) And 72% labelled as 'OTHER' - which appears to be ANYTHING (e.g. gout, eczema etc) /2
1) Any mental health diagnosis
2) A lot of common conditions that can range from trivial to severely life-limiting
3) And 72% labelled as 'OTHER' - which appears to be ANYTHING (e.g. gout, eczema etc) /2
3/ So just to summarise, we have already have >8000 deaths from COVID in working age people, some of whom had previously gone to the doctor for something.
The other point is this group is the one that had the MAXIMUM care to date /3
The other point is this group is the one that had the MAXIMUM care to date /3
4/ Lastly, if you need ICU with COVID and you don't get ICU, then you die.
Say 1 in 2000 <60s need ICU care:
In Scenario A, with lockdowns, only 1250 require ICU.
In Scenario B, without lockdowns, 12,500 require ICU.
We only have 4000 beds.
Say 1 in 2000 <60s need ICU care:
In Scenario A, with lockdowns, only 1250 require ICU.
In Scenario B, without lockdowns, 12,500 require ICU.
We only have 4000 beds.
5/ So with a vaccine already HERE, those STILL arguing for mass infection and 'protecting' those at risk, is neither practical or ethical, nor economically or scientifically literate.
So in the meantime; hands, face, space, fresh air, and stay at home. We are nearly there. /end
So in the meantime; hands, face, space, fresh air, and stay at home. We are nearly there. /end
SOURCES:
ONS data on COVID & excess deaths (England & Wales): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020#deaths-registered-by-age-group
NHS data on age/condition definitions:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-17-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx
Adult ICU Bed Numbers:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/critical-care-services-nhs
Discussion of interventions to reduce infection: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
ONS data on COVID & excess deaths (England & Wales): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020#deaths-registered-by-age-group
NHS data on age/condition definitions:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-17-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx
Adult ICU Bed Numbers:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/critical-care-services-nhs
Discussion of interventions to reduce infection: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
I've found some more granular data from a different source (the ONS) about what is a 'pre-existing' condition.
Here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales
Interestingly some of the 'pre-existing' conditions are likely actually COVID (pneumonia) & again most are non-fatal. /6
Here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales
Interestingly some of the 'pre-existing' conditions are likely actually COVID (pneumonia) & again most are non-fatal. /6
If you look at the FULL list of what IS a 'pre-existing' condition (defined here as appearing on the death certificate of COVID patients) - here is a flavour to show how broad this actually is: /7
The patients I looked after in COVID ICU were younger, generally previously well, with v. little previous severe conditions.
Stats From ICNARC:
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Avg age: ~60
89% living completely independently.
Only 1-4% had any previous very severe condition. /8
Stats From ICNARC:
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Avg age: ~60
89% living completely independently.
Only 1-4% had any previous very severe condition. /8
And the reality is many young people have undiagnosed conditions, or genetic predispositions to severe COVID and have no idea. Which is why 'focussed protection' is so bonkers, one of many reasons.
Anyway, stay at home, stay informed, and get vaccinated.
/End
Anyway, stay at home, stay informed, and get vaccinated.
/End
I reached out to the NHS to clarify if they had any more granular data on the “other” category. It’s a drop down menu for trusts to upload so there’s no detail beyond that:
If you would like to help the NHS at this hardest of times, especially the bereaved families of the over 640 healthcare workers that have lost their lives to COVID to date, please read and donate below: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-them-help-us-christmas-appeal?utm_source=whatsapp-visit&utm_medium=chat&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet
