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** Boxing Day Update **
It’s now been about 36 hours since the Nashville Christmas Bombing. And there have been a number of developments.
Let’s walk through what we know.
A new thread 1/x
It’s now been about 36 hours since the Nashville Christmas Bombing. And there have been a number of developments.
Let’s walk through what we know.
A new thread 1/x
Since this morning, we’ve learned:
(1) investigators have identified a person of interest;
(2) federal agents are executing a search warrant at what is likely that person’s home; and
(3) investigators believe this was a suicide attack.
Still no motive. Still plenty of ?s
2/x
(1) investigators have identified a person of interest;
(2) federal agents are executing a search warrant at what is likely that person’s home; and
(3) investigators believe this was a suicide attack.
Still no motive. Still plenty of ?s
2/x
The person of interest is described as a 63 year-old white man named Anthony Quinn Warner, who is a Nashville resident. Neighbors of the man are telling CNN that they’ve seen the RV at his home. Google also shows what may be the same RV parked there.
3/x https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nashville-bombing-person-of-interest-identified/
3/x https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nashville-bombing-person-of-interest-identified/
Federal agents appear right now to be executing a search warrant at Warner’s residence — or at least the location where Warner had been keeping his RV. The address is linked to him in public records.
4/x https://apnews.com/article/us-news-nashville-coronavirus-pandemic-tennessee-dc6eb653053967a4187f0ca8276d20a8
4/x https://apnews.com/article/us-news-nashville-coronavirus-pandemic-tennessee-dc6eb653053967a4187f0ca8276d20a8
And, most importantly, investigators have told reporters that they believe this was likely a suicide attack. That is, the bomber died in the explosion.
5/x https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1342959057435566080
5/x https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1342959057435566080
But, at least so far, investigators aren’t speculating about a motive. That’s a key piece of the puzzle they haven’t yet found.
So, what does this mean — for the investigation, for learning who did it, and for figuring out why?
6/x
So, what does this mean — for the investigation, for learning who did it, and for figuring out why?
6/x
Most obviously, investigators probably think they have their guy, it’s Warner, and he died in the blast.
There were some clues in the beginning that this was a suicide, particularly the lack of an APB or photo of a suspect walking away from the scene before the bombing.
7/x
There were some clues in the beginning that this was a suicide, particularly the lack of an APB or photo of a suspect walking away from the scene before the bombing.
7/x
From the beginning, investigators seemed unconcerned about additional attacks, and they never took steps consistent with a manhunt for an attacker(s) at large. They also mentioned human remains but didn’t seem to be looking for an unknown victim’s identity.
8/x
8/x
Also, given the “suicide bomber” reporting, we can now feel pretty confident that the area surveillance videos show no one getting out of the RV once it’s parked on Second Ave and before the explosion. The attacker apparently drove there planning to die.
9/x
9/x
Given some of fevered speculation in the comments, let me say — No — there’s no reason to believe the RV was driven there by some sophisticated remote-control device, or that some sophisticated actor put a dead body in there and drove the RV remotely to dispel suspicions.
10/x
10/x
These theories are fine as theories, but there’s no reason to believe them in place of the far simpler theory (absent contrary evidence) that the attacker drove himself and planned to die.
Suicide bombing, unfortunately, is not a new innovation.
11/x
Suicide bombing, unfortunately, is not a new innovation.
11/x
Nor is there any reason to believe that the attacker accidentally died in the blast, or that the bombing didn’t go according to plan.
All of the evidence at the scene indicates that the recording counted down slowly, giving the RV driver plenty of time to leave. He didn’t
12/x
All of the evidence at the scene indicates that the recording counted down slowly, giving the RV driver plenty of time to leave. He didn’t
12/x
So who drove the RV to 2nd Ave and set the explosion, killing himself in the process?
Again, taking the simplest explanation first, you’d guess it was the man who owned the RV. If you don’t care about getting caught (and you don’t if you’re dead), you use your own RV.
13/x
Again, taking the simplest explanation first, you’d guess it was the man who owned the RV. If you don’t care about getting caught (and you don’t if you’re dead), you use your own RV.
13/x
That guy, according to reports, was Warner.
Again, this may be obvious, but it’s worth saying — police and federal agents are searching his residence but they’re *not* searching for him.
Why not? Because he’s dead.
If they prove he’s dead, then they have their man.
14/x
Again, this may be obvious, but it’s worth saying — police and federal agents are searching his residence but they’re *not* searching for him.
Why not? Because he’s dead.
If they prove he’s dead, then they have their man.
14/x
The best evidence that Warner was the attacker is likely to come from the “human remains” that investigators have mentioned were recovered from the scene. If they can tie those remains to Warner, they’ll feel confident that he was the attacker.
15/x
15/x
This is more difficult than you’d guess. In most cases, you can’t just take DNA from tissue, punch it into a computer, and ask whose DNA it is. You have to match the unknown sample to the known sample.
One way to do this? Find some DNA (a hair, band-aid, etc) at his home.
16/x
One way to do this? Find some DNA (a hair, band-aid, etc) at his home.
16/x
Confirming that Warner died at the scene of the blast almost certainly is priority one for investigators right now.
Priority two? Determining if he acted alone or in concert with others. And that takes us back to motive.
17/x
Priority two? Determining if he acted alone or in concert with others. And that takes us back to motive.
17/x
As I said in the first thread, it’s a lot easier to determine a motive when you have a suspect. And we have a suspect.
By now, investigators should know a great deal about him. Unfortunately, his public profile is limited.
18/x
By now, investigators should know a great deal about him. Unfortunately, his public profile is limited.
18/x
So far, reports indicate that Warner was 63 years old, unmarried, white, childless, and lived in the Nashville area (Antioch) for many years.
He apparently had an old arrest 20+ years ago, and (most interestingly) was self-employed in IT, owning his own custom electronics store.
He apparently had an old arrest 20+ years ago, and (most interestingly) was self-employed in IT, owning his own custom electronics store.
There is no indication that he had any social media accounts or other internet presence. He hasn’t published any known manifesto. And, according to his next-door neighbor of more than 20 years (who never learned his last name in that time) he mostly kept to himself.
20/x
20/x
This limited profile looks strikingly similar to one Ted Kaczynski a/k/a the Unabomber.
21/x https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/unabomber
21/x https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/unabomber
And so now I have to revisit one of my thoughts from yesterday’s thread that I think may have been mistaken.
Way back then, 24 hours ago, I thought it was unlikely that this attack was done by a 5G conspiracy theorist or similar nut.
Now, that looks much more likely.
22/x
Way back then, 24 hours ago, I thought it was unlikely that this attack was done by a 5G conspiracy theorist or similar nut.
Now, that looks much more likely.
22/x
Now, it’s too early to know the actual conspiracy theory Warner may have believed or personal vendetta he may have been on.
And, as I said yesterday, you’d expect to find some sort of manifesto or public proclamation confirming these views.
I’d wager it’s out there.
23/x
And, as I said yesterday, you’d expect to find some sort of manifesto or public proclamation confirming these views.
I’d wager it’s out there.
23/x
I’d also guess that, when we do, Warner’s concerns will be related to surveillance, or 5G networks, or something similar that caused him to target the AT&T transmission building. And it won’t make sense to rational people.
This type of motive also suggests he acted alone.
24/x
This type of motive also suggests he acted alone.
24/x
This type of motive *also* might explain why the attacker broadcast the warning tape before the bomb exploded.
His sole target may have been the AT&T location. He apparently was willing to kill himself to bomb it, but he didn’t want others to die.
25/x
His sole target may have been the AT&T location. He apparently was willing to kill himself to bomb it, but he didn’t want others to die.
25/x
Which made me think about an article I’d run across on lone wolf theory. The authors put lone wolf terrorists in two categories. One is your classic disconnected, social loner who shows signs of mental illness.
26/x
https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/toward-profile-lone-wolf-terrorists-what-moves-individual-radical-opinion-radical-action
26/x
https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/toward-profile-lone-wolf-terrorists-what-moves-individual-radical-opinion-radical-action
You wouldn’t expect that group to try to avoid deaths; quite the opposite.
The other group of lone wolves they describe as “caring-compelled . . . individuals who strongly feel the suffering of others and feel a personal responsibility to reduce or avenge this suffering.”
27/x
The other group of lone wolves they describe as “caring-compelled . . . individuals who strongly feel the suffering of others and feel a personal responsibility to reduce or avenge this suffering.”
27/x
Does Warner fall in that latter group?
Did he feel some massively misguided responsibility to attack a 5G network, or try to stop NSA surveillance, and was willing to die in the process?
That’d be nutty. But we’re in nutty land with this set of facts.
28/x
Did he feel some massively misguided responsibility to attack a 5G network, or try to stop NSA surveillance, and was willing to die in the process?
That’d be nutty. But we’re in nutty land with this set of facts.
28/x
One last thing before I take a break:
There’s a credible report that a former Warner paramour told police *months ago* that she believed he was BUILDING A BOMB.
If this is true (and the source is solid), it’d be a massive failure of policing. And heads should roll.
29/x https://twitter.com/jasonashville/status/1342960334232031233
There’s a credible report that a former Warner paramour told police *months ago* that she believed he was BUILDING A BOMB.
If this is true (and the source is solid), it’d be a massive failure of policing. And heads should roll.
29/x https://twitter.com/jasonashville/status/1342960334232031233
Latest development:
Apparently the FBI is taking very seriously the possibility that Warner was motivated to attack the AT&T facility over paranoid fears about 5G networks.
30/x https://twitter.com/jfinleyreports/status/1343038998848090112
Apparently the FBI is taking very seriously the possibility that Warner was motivated to attack the AT&T facility over paranoid fears about 5G networks.
30/x https://twitter.com/jfinleyreports/status/1343038998848090112
More evidence from Warner's residence that he was quite a bit paranoid: lots of security cameras and no trespassing signs in a neighborhood where either are rare.
31/x
31/x
