In 2020, @CheriBustos was re-elected in #IL17 by the narrowest margin of her five victories in this district, having won re-election by over 20 points in 2016 and 2018. Nevertheless, she still demonstrated strength in rural parts of this district, especially in the south. (1/4)

#IL17 is a historically Democratic region that supported Dems even in rural areas. Obama won it 57.6-40.6 in 2012, but Trump flipped it 47.4-46.7 in 2016. The district trended red again in 2020, going for Trump 49.7-48.1 even as Biden improved the Dem national popular vote. (2/4)

Even though Bustos' 2020 performance was a dramatic decline from previous blowout margins, her overperformance of Biden was still impressive. While Biden overperformed Bustos in much of the Quad Cities and Peoria, Bustos dramatically overperformed throughout rural #IL17. (3/4)

It's apparent to me that #IL17 probably would have flipped to Republicans in 2020 if it was an open seat. Biden narrowly outperformed Bustos in predominantly black areas, and Bustos depended on big rural overperformance to narrowly win. Bustos' incumbency saved this seat. (4/4)

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