Thread by @altonpowers, So then, what has caused more deaths in #London this year, #Covid19 [...]

So then, what has caused more deaths in #London this year, #Covid19 or #AirPollution?

Let's find out…

1/

As of Christmas Eve, the official number of Covid deaths in London *in hospitals* was 8,290. https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--deaths

And according to that source, approximately 75% of Covid deaths occur in hospitals, which gives us a total number of Covid deaths in London of 11,053.

2/

The 2015 King's College London report on Air Pollution put annual deaths from PM2.5 at 3,537 and from NO2 at 5,879. (This is after accounting for a 30% overlap between the effects of PM2.5 and NO2.)

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/hiainlondon_kingsreport_14072015_final.pdf

So 9,416 annual London air pollution deaths.

3/

So simple summary: London's annual death toll from #AirPollution is 85% of its #Covid19 death toll.

4/

But let's dig into things a bit more…

Firstly, we're missing the last week of Covid deaths, because that data isn't out yet. And it's likely to be a grim week.

We also haven't calibrated the air pollution deaths for the potentially lower traffic levels caused by lockdown.

5/

We also haven't factored in any interplay between the two. They both affect the lungs, so potentially exacerbate each other

As I've previously discussed, it's also worth asking whether the deaths are "just" premature deaths which air pollution or Covid brought forward a bit.

6/

But deaths are always premature deaths, because everyone dies of something eventually. So a better question might be: how many life years have been lost?

Well…

7/

For air pollution we actually already have this figure, because the 9,416 "deaths" is not the number of lives that are shortened. Millions of lives are shortened. The KCL report calculates total life years lost (140,743) & converts that into "equivalent deaths" (9,416).

8/

For Covid, I will attempt some very crude maths…

Avg UK life expectancy is 81.25 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2017to2019

Average age for a Covid victim is between 80.3 and 83 depending on whether you take the mean or median and "caused by" or "involving" https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12376averageageofdeathmedianandmeanofpersonswhosedeathwasduetocovid19orinvolvedcovid19bysexdeathsregistereduptoweekending2october2020englandandwales/finaltable.xlsx

And so…

9/

If we take the avg Covid death age as (80.3+83)/2 = 81.65

And the avg life expectancy of 81.25

That means that the total life years lost from #Covid19 in #London is…

negative?

Obviously not. How do we calculate this? Is it even possible? @BBCMoreOrLess @TimHarford help!

10/

It seems likely that when based on life years lost, #AiPollution may be worse than #Covid. I don't intend this to be some kind of anti-Covid-measures thread. And it's worth noting that the Covid deaths would've been a *lot* higher had we not taken measures against it.

But…

11/

Given the loss of life that air pollution is causing *every year*, it's worth asking the questions: are we ok with this? Are we putting the right amount of focus on the right problems? And if not, what should we be doing differently?

/END

Tagging some people who enjoyed my previous #Covid vs #AirPollution thread: @VictoriaRance @museumgirlldn @MartinPorter6 @MumsForLungs @JonIrwinLD @CHAIRRDRF @HelenGrayIBCLC @XRLondon, @gnomeicide @JaneSymons1 @KateM45 @jakepjohnson @antonybutcher @alastairis @ogleforth

Latest Threads Unrolled: