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The reality is that it is too early to judge the full merits of UK-EU trade and cooperation agreement. Some quick reflections (thread)
1. Certainties: irrespective of content, UK-EU deal is an extraordinary achievement. Covers way more than trade, finalised in less than 11 months and during a pandemic. @NicoleSykes_ notes lots of good stuff on aviation & some positives on internal security says @LordRickettsP
2. Negotiation: only those at the heart of the negotiation know how talks really went. Cd UK have secured more had it played its cards differently? Possibly, but absolutely no guarantee. May's government put fwd "3 baskets" approach: sounded sensible on paper, never flew with EU
3. More trade barriers: FTAs usually seek to reduce trade barriers to increase ease & volume of trade. Hope is also to make market more attractive to foreign investment. This FTA does opposite so cd make those supply chains that are deeply integrated with EU more ££ & cumbersome
4. Comparison: That's why, as @AnnaJerzewska correctly points out, it's more interesting to compare UK-EU FTA to other trade agreements EU & UK have struck, rather than compare it to EU membership. Are there any provisions to reduce barriers to trade? What are the conditions?
5. Adaptation: merits or not of UK-EU deal won't be immediately visible. Depends on how businesses & supply chains adapt to new trade reality. Also depends on what UK does domestically, i.e. whether & how it invests in industries so they become competitive on EU & global stage.
6. Future: deal is also new chapter in UK-EU relationship. A chance for both sides to finally turn the page, while testing new beginnings of their cooperation on NI protocol & more broadly. No guarantee it will be smooth - but certainly easier with deal in place. END.
