CLINCHING THE ONE SEED: AN EXPLANATION

There was a lot of bad info last week about what scenarios would clinch the AFC's 1 seed for the Chiefs. Everyone was in agreement that it was extremely likely, but they wanted to know when it was official. I'm here to answer that.

The Chiefs are 13-1, the Steelers are 11-3, and the Bills are 11-3. If the Chiefs end the year 0-2, and the Bills and Steelers end the year 2-0, that puts all 3 teams at 13-3. While the Chiefs have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, that doesn't apply in a 3-way tie.

The first tiebreaker in 3-way ties is conference record. In this scenario, all three teams would be 10-2 vs the AFC, which would typically move the tie breaker to common opponents, but you need a minimum of 4 between all 3 teams and the only team everyone played was Denver.

So now here's the tiebreaker in question.
Strength of victory - the record of all the teams they defeated that season. Here's the current SOV going into the final two weeks:

KC: 85-97 (0.467)
BUF: 69-85 (0.448)
PIT: 65-87 (0.428)

But remember this scenario also requires the Steelers to defeat the 10-4 Colts and 10-4 Browns, who would now both be 10-5 with a loss to the Steelers. It also requires the Bills to beat the 6-8 Pats and 9-5 Dolphins, which adds 6-9 and 9-6 to their SOV totals.

New SOV totals going into this week's games would be:
KC: 88-99 (0.471) (+2 wins by BUF +1 win by LAC +1 loss by MIA and NE)
PIT: 85-98 (0.464) (+20 wins and 11 losses)
BUF: 87-102 (.460) (+18 wins and 17 losses)

Now we have to look at the remaining games.

Remaining teams and who their results impact:

Only BUF: SF, LAR, SEA
Only PIT: CIN, CLE(x2), IND, DAL, PHI, NYG, JAX, TEN
Only KC: TB, CAR, NO
Both BUF and KC: LAC, MIA(x2BUF), NYJ(x2BUF), NE(x2BUF), LV
Both PIT and KC: BAL(x2PIT), HOU
All 3: DEN(x2KC)

Week 16:
SF-ARI BUF wants SF
CIN-HOU PIT goes 1-1, KC wants HOU
DEN-LAC KC wants DEN(2), BUF goes 1-1, PIT wants DEN
CLE-NYJ PIT wants CLE(2), BUF wants NYJ(2), KC wants NYJ
TB-DET KC wants TB
DAL-PHI PIT goes 1-1
MIA-LV BUF wants MIA(2), KC goes 1-1
WFT-CAR KC wants CAR

NYG-BAL PIT wants BAL(2), KC wants BAL
JAX-CHI PIT wants JAX
LAR-SEA BUF goes 1-1
NO-MIN KC got 1
TEN-GB PIT wants TEN

Week 17:
SF-SEA BUF goes 1-1
CIN-BAL PIT wants BAL(2), KC wants BAL
DEN-LV KC wants DEN(2), BUF goes 1-1, PIT wants DEN

TB-ATL KC wants TB
ARI-LAR BUF wants LAR
IND-JAX PIT goes 1-1
DAL-NYG PIT goes 1-1
PHI-WFT PIT wants PHI
NYJ-NE BUF goes 2-2, KC goes 1-1
CAR-NO KC goes 1-1
HOU-TEN PIT goes 1-1, KC wants HOU

Now that that's settled, let's apply only the games that have one possible outcome (games without "wants"). New SOV is:

KC 91-101 (0.474)
PIT 88-101 (0.466)
BUF 91-106 (0.462)

Of the remaining games, if you don't give KC any game they "want"...

The added records would be BUF 6-5, PIT 10-7, KC 3-12, making the final SOV standings:

PIT 97-109 (0.471)
BUF 97-111 (0.466)
KC 94-114 (0.452)

That would require KC to go 0-11, BUF to go 3-1, and PIT to go 4-3. If instead, the Chiefs get the result they want in every game...

BUF would go 5-6, PIT would go 8-9, and KC would go 13-3, making the final standings:

KC 104-104 (.500)
PIT 96-110 (0.466)
BUF 96-112 (0.462)

So there's the range. If you want to know the results that help the Chiefs, here's your cheering guide:

Some games have a little more weight than others, but the Chiefs need about 4 of these to happen in order to clinch. And please note that these all assume Chiefs go 0-2 Bills go 2-0 and Steelers go 2-0. Any of those results would override this entire operation and give KC the 1.

Here is an Excel file if you'd like to plug things in yourself. The yellow cells are drop-downs where you can choose the winner, and you can see at the bottom what that does to the Strength of Victory for all three teams.
https://mega.nz/file/Tdk22bgC#CKMSjBgXm8cqIwy9ruasKVUufuXcIc29903-BVEoReQ