The alarming lead story in the New York Times this morning concerns the growth of COVID-19 through Africa, where the cumulative death total from the disease is less than 45 per million. In the U.S. it is 975 per million—more than 20 times worse. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/world/africa/africa-coronavirus-pandemic.html?referringSource=articleShare

The story is primarily about caseloads, since the age structure of Africa means the disease has been much less lethal there.

While official counts underestimate the number of true infections throughout Africa (as they do in the U.S.), the contrast in cases is just as stark: 2,000 per million there, 56,000 per million here.

And while cases have been on an upward trajectory — from a seven-day-rolling average low of about 5.5 new cases per million in September to about 15 per million today — the figures are not much above the July peak of about 14...

... and the growth from the continent-wide low is both small in absolute terms and much smaller proportionally than recent waves in Europe (10x its August trough in November) or the U.S (6x its alarmingly high September trough earlier in December).

At its absolute trough, the U.S was still above 100 new cases per million. Africa is presently at 15.

Very likely, the African case counts more dramatically underestimate true infections than do the American ones, of course. But given the dramatic age skew of the disease, in places with different age structures case counts ultimately mean different things.