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covid has a seasonal/regional infection pattern. policy has not stopped or slowed it.
we tended to look at certain countries early on and assume that whatever they did was working if covid was low
but much of this was mistaking baby oil for sunscreen because it was night time https://twitter.com/nbakic/status/1342752729773596675
we tended to look at certain countries early on and assume that whatever they did was working if covid was low
but much of this was mistaking baby oil for sunscreen because it was night time https://twitter.com/nbakic/status/1342752729773596675
you can see this clearly as you read the rest of the thread above (and you should).
this in particular is a great take.
you can see the one season show huge inter-country variance but as the second one hits in the east, this rapidly recedes. https://twitter.com/nbakic/status/1342752736497061895?s=20
this in particular is a great take.
you can see the one season show huge inter-country variance but as the second one hits in the east, this rapidly recedes. https://twitter.com/nbakic/status/1342752736497061895?s=20
johan has found a great way to visualize this same issue here. https://twitter.com/jhnhellstrom/status/1341523801910218753?s=20
all the lockdowns, masks, distancing, etc were, in the end, ineffective.
your season comes and you get covid. of further interest, many of those with the least covid early are now getting it worst.
we saw something very similar in south america.
your season comes and you get covid. of further interest, many of those with the least covid early are now getting it worst.
we saw something very similar in south america.
peru was lauded as a massive lockdown success in april.
then, the southern seasonality hit and they jumped to worst per capita deaths in the world for any non-microstate.
then, the southern seasonality hit and they jumped to worst per capita deaths in the world for any non-microstate.
they have, however, since been supplanted by many of the former "NPI success stories" from eastern europe.
precisely why remains an interesting question.
precisely why remains an interesting question.
there is a plausible argument that early lockdowns actually move HIT higher by breaking the chains of early superspread (like students and young workers) and preventing the flip to super-resistance of such social nodes thereby removing low cost community resistance generation.
i think the jury is still out on this one and that while some models have shown it, we cannot say it has really been proven and there are so many possible confounds as to make certainty elusive.
it could simply be that winter is a worse time to get your peak than spring.
it could simply be that winter is a worse time to get your peak than spring.
we could also be running into an urban/rural or connected/not connected split. there's interesting data starting to come into focus on this. the presumption was that dense cities would get it worse. this does not seem to be the case. many rural areas get worse per cap death
this may make sense as cities have been exposed to more viruses previously and we have seen time and time again, there was quite a lot of pre-existing resistance to covid 19 and diversity, not intensity of response led to best outcomes. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1298278931188121600?s=20
and no, asia did not have some silver bullet in terms of response. they had more pre-existing immunity.
they also test at 1/10th to 1/000th the rate of the west, use lower Ct on PCR tests, test only symptomatic, etc. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1330139178999406595?s=20
they also test at 1/10th to 1/000th the rate of the west, use lower Ct on PCR tests, test only symptomatic, etc. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1330139178999406595?s=20
this diversity of response is great news. it makes lasting resistance far more likely and more effective.
virus can mutate away from one immunity vector, but not 12.
and contrary to what folks like fauci are currently peddling, community resistance levels were reached by many.
virus can mutate away from one immunity vector, but not 12.
and contrary to what folks like fauci are currently peddling, community resistance levels were reached by many.
this wave looks nothing like the last one in places that already had a 1st wave
NY is not spiking. they are just testing far more. it's astonishing that at this stage, people are still not adjusting for sample rate.
perhaps it's because when you do, you get this. (CTP data)
NY is not spiking. they are just testing far more. it's astonishing that at this stage, people are still not adjusting for sample rate.
perhaps it's because when you do, you get this. (CTP data)
note how well this is confirmed by deaths and how wildly divergent "reported cases" are
that has become a liar's metric. without reference to testing level, you cannot tell what case count is actually measuring
in NY it looks like a new high. reality is an 88% drop from peak.
that has become a liar's metric. without reference to testing level, you cannot tell what case count is actually measuring
in NY it looks like a new high. reality is an 88% drop from peak.
even in places like michigan that seem to show a second wave, it's really broken down by geography.
split it by county and region, and you see that it's 2 waves in different times in different places. https://twitter.com/gov_fails/status/1337558817337380865?s=20
split it by county and region, and you see that it's 2 waves in different times in different places. https://twitter.com/gov_fails/status/1337558817337380865?s=20
even easier to see like this.
it's very difficult to find a place that has actually had 2 real waves. when someone claims they have one, try breaking it down more granularly by geography.
that claim tends to fail when you do.
and this is very good news.
it's very difficult to find a place that has actually had 2 real waves. when someone claims they have one, try breaking it down more granularly by geography.
that claim tends to fail when you do.
and this is very good news.
it's good news because it means you do not get double dipped. one big wave and communities have strong resistance levels. later waves are small
covid is completely endemic now. it's everywhere.
this renders the idea that you can stop it with lockdowns, travel bans etc absurd
covid is completely endemic now. it's everywhere.
this renders the idea that you can stop it with lockdowns, travel bans etc absurd
covid-19 is considerably more contagious than most coronaviruses. so of course it's endemic
the big takeaway here is that that 18% 2ndary attack rate in households drops to 0.7% for asymptomatic even when you live in the same house
that's negligible https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102
the big takeaway here is that that 18% 2ndary attack rate in households drops to 0.7% for asymptomatic even when you live in the same house
that's negligible https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102
and it shows why all the masks and distancing and lockdowns have accomplished nothing. there was never a real risk of spread from casual contact with asymptomatic individuals.
it's not statistically distinguishable from 0.
it's all been an anti-chupacabra charm bracelet.
it's not statistically distinguishable from 0.
it's all been an anti-chupacabra charm bracelet.
we've hammed the global economy, global mental health, education, access to other health care, vaccination, and even food security in poor nations to close off vectors that were never any real threat.
this has been the single greatest health policy blunder in human history.
this has been the single greatest health policy blunder in human history.
