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Running through the public information for @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT.
I've leveraged available information from @Square $SQ, @NuveiTech $NVEI, and @Paypal $PYPL.
1/25
I've leveraged available information from @Square $SQ, @NuveiTech $NVEI, and @Paypal $PYPL.
1/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT has a lot of different brands which complicate the brand and organization.
Operating in omni-channel payments with a number of branded digital wallets.
Most of the brands have been acquired which speak to the company's ability to make acquisitions.
2/25
Operating in omni-channel payments with a number of branded digital wallets.
Most of the brands have been acquired which speak to the company's ability to make acquisitions.
2/25
Most noteworthy @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT brands:
@skrill: Digital wallet for iGaming and P2P payments
@NETELLER: Digital wallet for P2P payments
@paysafecard: eCash card for iGaming and Esports
@IncomeAccess: Affiliate marketing network for Esports
3/25
@skrill: Digital wallet for iGaming and P2P payments
@NETELLER: Digital wallet for P2P payments
@paysafecard: eCash card for iGaming and Esports
@IncomeAccess: Affiliate marketing network for Esports
3/25
Combined these brands create a strong but fragmented presence for @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT
#2 Global stored value digital wallet
#1 Global iGaming eCash network
#4 Payments processor in the United States
Bullets above are management's figures.
Haven't validated these.
4/25
#2 Global stored value digital wallet
#1 Global iGaming eCash network
#4 Payments processor in the United States
Bullets above are management's figures.
Haven't validated these.
4/25
$BFT Diversified revenue streams in iGaming and Esports:
Digital Wallets: 30% of revenue
eCash Cards: 19% of revenue
Payment Processing: 51% of revenue
Total Revenue Last 12 Months Sep-20: $1.4 Billion.
Growth levers coming from Digital Wallets and Payments.
5/25
Digital Wallets: 30% of revenue
eCash Cards: 19% of revenue
Payment Processing: 51% of revenue
Total Revenue Last 12 Months Sep-20: $1.4 Billion.
Growth levers coming from Digital Wallets and Payments.
5/25
Looking to compare @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT with similar public companies, I leverage @Square $SQ and @NuveiTech $NVEI.
Both payment processors, focused on omni-channel payment solutions.
6/25
Both payment processors, focused on omni-channel payment solutions.
6/25
Transaction Volume: Last 12 Months Sep-2020
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $94 Billion (YoY Growth: 6.3%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $39 Billion (YoY Growth: 61.9%)
@Square $SQ $108 Billion (YoY Growth: 8.3%)
Nuvei is a monster, growing fast.
Paysafe manages as much volume as Square.
7/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $94 Billion (YoY Growth: 6.3%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $39 Billion (YoY Growth: 61.9%)
@Square $SQ $108 Billion (YoY Growth: 8.3%)
Nuvei is a monster, growing fast.
Paysafe manages as much volume as Square.
7/25
Revenue: Last 12 Months Sep-2020
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $1.4 Billion (YoY Growth: 0.3%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $338 Million (YoY Growth: 32.2)
@Square $SQ $7.6 Billion (YoY Growth: 140.0%)
Nuvei & Square grew through COVID.
Paysafe struggled, noting eCash gained momentum.
8/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $1.4 Billion (YoY Growth: 0.3%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $338 Million (YoY Growth: 32.2)
@Square $SQ $7.6 Billion (YoY Growth: 140.0%)
Nuvei & Square grew through COVID.
Paysafe struggled, noting eCash gained momentum.
8/25
Gross Margin: Last 12 Months Sep-2020
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $890 Million (YoY Growth: -2.8%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $280 Million (YoY Growth: 30.6%)
@Square $SQ $2.5 Billion (YoY Growth: 32.2%)
Nuvei & Square grew gross margins through COVID.
Paysafe declined slightly.
9/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $890 Million (YoY Growth: -2.8%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $280 Million (YoY Growth: 30.6%)
@Square $SQ $2.5 Billion (YoY Growth: 32.2%)
Nuvei & Square grew gross margins through COVID.
Paysafe declined slightly.
9/25
Adj. EBITDA: Last 12 Months Sep-2020
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $425 Million (YoY Growth: -11.0%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $143 Million (YoY Growth: 58.9%)
@Square $SQ $407 Million (YoY Growth: 38.0%)
Nuvei & Square blow-out, increasing profitability.
Paysafe declined significantly.
10/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT $425 Million (YoY Growth: -11.0%)
@NuveiTech $NVEI $143 Million (YoY Growth: 58.9%)
@Square $SQ $407 Million (YoY Growth: 38.0%)
Nuvei & Square blow-out, increasing profitability.
Paysafe declined significantly.
10/25
Valuation Analysis: Square
@Square $SQ
Market Cap: $102.9 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 13.5x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 41.9x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 252.9x EBITDA
Squares revenue growth has created a lot of excitement.
@CashApp is growing exponentially.
11/25
@Square $SQ
Market Cap: $102.9 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 13.5x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 41.9x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 252.9x EBITDA
Squares revenue growth has created a lot of excitement.
@CashApp is growing exponentially.
11/25
Valuation Analysis: Nuvei
@NuveiTech $NVEI
Market Cap: $7.6 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 22.4x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 27.1x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 52.9x EBITDA
Nuvei grew Gross Margin at the same rate as @Square.
Still trading at a lower multiple to $SQ.
12/25
@NuveiTech $NVEI
Market Cap: $7.6 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 22.4x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 27.1x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 52.9x EBITDA
Nuvei grew Gross Margin at the same rate as @Square.
Still trading at a lower multiple to $SQ.
12/25
Valuation Analysis: Paysafe
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT
Market Cap: $13.7 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 9.6x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 15.5x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 32.4x EBITDA
No growth in revenue/gross margin. Decline in EBITDA.
Value closer to a payments company.
13/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT
Market Cap: $13.7 Billion
Revenue Multiple: 9.6x Revenue
Gross Margin Multiple: 15.5x Gross Margin
EBITDA Multiple: 32.4x EBITDA
No growth in revenue/gross margin. Decline in EBITDA.
Value closer to a payments company.
13/25
Based on the analysis above, it's unfortunate seeing how @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT performed during COVID.
@NuveiTech $NVEI performed extremely well. I'm very impressed by Nuvei.
@Square $SQ obviously is killing it with @CashApp.
14/25
@NuveiTech $NVEI performed extremely well. I'm very impressed by Nuvei.
@Square $SQ obviously is killing it with @CashApp.
14/25
Looking to the future @PlugIntoPaysafe is working towards iGaming / Esports dominance.
They are making an entry into the United States with their Digital Wallets. This is where @Square and @venmo thrive.
This is a bold bet which I respect. Will likely pay off too.
15/25
They are making an entry into the United States with their Digital Wallets. This is where @Square and @venmo thrive.
This is a bold bet which I respect. Will likely pay off too.
15/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe partnerships:
@askmindbody enabling account balances and payments
@Xbox enabling digital wallets and eCash
@G2esports exclusive partner enabling digital wallets
@acmilan exclusive partner promoting iGaming
Many Esports influencers through @IncomeAccess
16/25
@askmindbody enabling account balances and payments
@Xbox enabling digital wallets and eCash
@G2esports exclusive partner enabling digital wallets
@acmilan exclusive partner promoting iGaming
Many Esports influencers through @IncomeAccess
16/25
Partnerships are critical for maintaining @PaySAFE $BFT brand.
Being touted and trusted by well known brands supports their growth plans and push into new markets.
Recent partnerships with @Xbox and @Microsoft should help them enter the United States.
17/25
Being touted and trusted by well known brands supports their growth plans and push into new markets.
Recent partnerships with @Xbox and @Microsoft should help them enter the United States.
17/25
Product: App Store Rating
@skrill 4.4 stars (5k reviews)
@NETELLER 3.0 stars (124 reviews)
@paysafecard 3.9 stars (99 reviews)
@venmo 4.9 stars (10.5M reviews)
@CashApp 4.6 stars (630.5k reviews)
Overall not very relevant on iOS.
Likely due to limited exposure in the US.
18/25
@skrill 4.4 stars (5k reviews)
@NETELLER 3.0 stars (124 reviews)
@paysafecard 3.9 stars (99 reviews)
@venmo 4.9 stars (10.5M reviews)
@CashApp 4.6 stars (630.5k reviews)
Overall not very relevant on iOS.
Likely due to limited exposure in the US.
18/25
Product: Google Play Rating
@skrill 4.0 stars (98.8k reviews)
@NETELLER 3.5 stars (17.2k reviews)
@paysafecard 4.5 stars (76.1k reviews)
@venmo 4.5 stars (420.5k M reviews)
@CashApp 4.0 stars (288.5k reviews)
Much more relevant on Android.
Showcasing European dominance.
19/25
@skrill 4.0 stars (98.8k reviews)
@NETELLER 3.5 stars (17.2k reviews)
@paysafecard 4.5 stars (76.1k reviews)
@venmo 4.5 stars (420.5k M reviews)
@CashApp 4.0 stars (288.5k reviews)
Much more relevant on Android.
Showcasing European dominance.
19/25
Active Users
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT 15 Million users
@CashApp $SQ 59 Million users
@venmo $PYPL 69 Million users
Unclear how $BFT has grown historically.
Cash / Venmo have almost doubled every year.
Lots of upside here as $BFT enters the US iGaming / Esports market.
20/25
@PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT 15 Million users
@CashApp $SQ 59 Million users
@venmo $PYPL 69 Million users
Unclear how $BFT has grown historically.
Cash / Venmo have almost doubled every year.
Lots of upside here as $BFT enters the US iGaming / Esports market.
20/25
Management Team
Solid management team with Bill Foley at the helm.
A lot of M&A experience. M&A boosts stock price.
Some are still fresh (under 2 years).
They will be motivated to make things happen.
Notably: Philip McHugh, Afshin Yazdian, Paulette Rowe.
21/25
Solid management team with Bill Foley at the helm.
A lot of M&A experience. M&A boosts stock price.
Some are still fresh (under 2 years).
They will be motivated to make things happen.
Notably: Philip McHugh, Afshin Yazdian, Paulette Rowe.
21/25
M&A Strategy: Consolidator of choice
Management stated they have a pipeline of 300+ digital wallets that lack scale and would choose to join forces with @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT
Based on historic acquisitions of @skrill @NETELLER @IncomeAccess, I agree with this assumption.
22/25
Management stated they have a pipeline of 300+ digital wallets that lack scale and would choose to join forces with @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT
Based on historic acquisitions of @skrill @NETELLER @IncomeAccess, I agree with this assumption.
22/25
With public currency you can offer higher than average valuations using cash / equity mixes.
With part of the purchase pricing being in equity, the acquired management teams "buy-in" to the story and contribute to $BFT's overall growth.
Otherwise they lose out on value.
23/25
With part of the purchase pricing being in equity, the acquired management teams "buy-in" to the story and contribute to $BFT's overall growth.
Otherwise they lose out on value.
23/25
I think $BFT has a bright future.
Brand, Revenue and Geography diversification.
Tailwinds behind them from the massive iGaming and Esports markets.
Would love to see them consolidate their brands into one household name to avoid confusion and cannibalization.
24/25
Brand, Revenue and Geography diversification.
Tailwinds behind them from the massive iGaming and Esports markets.
Would love to see them consolidate their brands into one household name to avoid confusion and cannibalization.
24/25
$BFT Pre-Merger Price Target: $20 - $30.
$20 with no news; $30 with more partnership announcements.
Also don't sleep on @NuveiTech.
$NVEI is growing fast and making moves with the intention of consolidating the Digital Wallet space too.
Might be a problem for $BFT.
25/25
$20 with no news; $30 with more partnership announcements.
Also don't sleep on @NuveiTech.
$NVEI is growing fast and making moves with the intention of consolidating the Digital Wallet space too.
Might be a problem for $BFT.
25/25
